The latest long-range forecast of the monsoon by the India meteorological department states that Bihar is likely to receive about 96 per cent normal rainfall in 2017 with a possibility of 8 per cent departure from normal.
Sharing details of the forecast carried out for the country on Tuesday, IMD Patna office scientist Anand Shankar told The Telegraph on Wednesday: "Even though the departure range in the latest forecast has been enhanced from the earlier 4 per cent to 8 per cent, there is nothing much to worry as in all likelihood Bihar is expected to get almost normal rainfall this year." There is one more positive thing about the latest monsoon forecast. The chances of El Niño effect have almost been ruled out.
Normally, when El Niño occurs, India receives less-than-normal rainfall. El Niño is a set of changes in the weather system near the coast of northern Peru and Ecuador that happens every few years, causing the surface of the Pacific Ocean there to become warmer before severely impacting weather in many parts of the world.
As far as normal rainfall is concerned, for Bihar it should be 1,027.6mm during the monsoon season, that is from June to September.
Shankar said a very good aspect of the monsoon forecast this year is that rainfall is likely to be spread well through the monsoon season.
It should be music to the ears of farmers in Bihar as out of the total cultivated area in Bihar (57.12 lakh hectare) only about 18 lakh hectares of arable land has irrigation facility, thus leaving the farmers to depend on the vagaries of nature. An even distribution of rainfall would help kharif crops in a big way.
On the likely time of arrival of monsoon in Bihar, the Met office scientist said going by the advancement of rain-bearing winds so far, Bihar was likely to receive the monsoon on time - June 10.
Monsoon enters the state from the northeastern side. It generally takes a week for these winds to cover the entire state. Last year, the monsoon, after arrival, took just five days to cover the whole state. While timely arrival of monsoon looms on the horizon, several parts of Bihar, including Patna, received pre-monsoon rainfall on Wednesday.
Other major places where rainfall was recorded on Wednesday were Saran, Siwan, Nalanda, Gaya, Bhagalpur, Purnea, Jehanabad, Aurangabad, Bhojpur, Buxar and East Champaran and other places.
Patna had recorded 39.6mm of rainfall till 8.30 in the morning and more rain was witnessed during the day. The city received 11mm of rainfall between 8.30am and 5.30pm on Wednesday.
"A cyclonic circulation is prevailing over Bihar at a height of 1.5km above the earth's surface. This has led to weather related activities, including rain and thundershower," Shankar said.
He said the weather was likely to remain similar on Thursday but chances of rain on Friday and Saturday were less.
