Patna, June 4: The pre-monsoon rainfall in Bihar this year has been the scantiest in the past six years.

According to the meteorological department, the state has recorded 46.5mm rainfall between March and May against the normal 77.5mm during the same period. It is a drop of 40 per cent from the normal pre-monsoon rainfall in the state.

The situation has been worse in the state capital, which has received no rainfall for the past 57 days. To add to this, the maximum temperature in Patna that touched 44.1ºC on Monday is expected to soar even higher in the coming few days.

Ashish Sen, director (radar), Patna Meteorological Department, told The Telegraph: “Thunderstorms are less likely to develop in the state till June 10 but there are possibilities of squalls. However, the wind direction in the lower atmosphere has changed from easterly to westerly today (Monday) morning. Thus, the temperature is expected to soar furthermore in the next three to four days, which would be accompanied by humidity due to westerly winds.”

The scant pre-monsoon rainfall has most affected the farmers. “The prevailing extreme dry weather condition has badly hit sugarcane, litchi and Kharif maze crops. If the monsoon is disrupted, it would affect the planting of paddy seedlings,” said Sudhanshu Kumar, a farmer at Samastipur district. The wait for monsoon is going to be a little longer this time as the south-west monsoon, which had entered Bihar on June 15 last year, is likely to hit the state on or after June 17 this year.

Medha Khole, deputy director-general of meteorology (weather forecasting), IMD, said over phone from Pune: “South-west monsoon is normally expected to hit Kerela by June 1. A delay of few days has occurred due to typhoon ‘Mawar’ in North Pacific Ocean. However, the typhoon has now shifted towards the north and it would not have any significant effect on the movement of the monsoon anymore. As per the prevailing conditions in Kerela, including formation of clouds and high moisture content, monsoon is likely to set in the state within the next 24 hours. Once, this wing of southwest monsoon would hit Kerela, another wing would start proceeding towards the Bengal region.”

Medha further informed that the wing of south-west monsoon, which had hit Andaman on May 23, has covered central and south Bay of Bengal and is progressing towards the north-west bay. “It is difficult to commit on any specific date for entry of south-west monsoon in Bihar as of now. The picture for this region would be more clearer once the revised long-range forecast is prepared by the end of this week,” she added.

Weathermen in the state are of the view that the monsoon may become weak after first few days of its entry into the state. “A rise of up to 0.5ºC in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean may lead to weakening of south-west monsoon after few days of its entry in this region — Uttar Pradesh, Bengal and Bihar. We are expecting the distribution of the monsoon to be affected in July but it would speed up in August,” said Sen.

Other weather scientists in the state are expecting the monsoon to enter the state before June 20. “If the western wing of south-west monsoon hits Kerela in the next two to three days, its eastern wing would enter Bihar between June 20 and 26. Moreover, there would be a break in monsoon rainfall in the month of July, which would affect standing crops,” said Abdul Sattar, the assistant professor of meteorology at Rajendra Agriculture University, Pusa.