Jitan Ram Manjhi may have ceased to be a millstone around Nitish Kumar's neck, but a bigger political game lies ahead in an election year.
Chief minister-in-waiting Nitish virtually summed up the challenge when he said governance was his USP and he would rule in the same style he had for more than eight years before he quit last year. "Even if he is fully aware that the challenges are far more daunting. It will not only test his administrative skills but also his political astuteness, as he has to carry the RJD and Congress along with him," a senior JDU leader conceded.
Nitish knows he will regain the state's control at a time everybody is in poll mode. There are strong indications the RJD may be included in his new ministry. "It's for RJD chief Lalu Prasad to take a call," said Bhai Birendra, the RJD's chief whip in the Assembly. There are talks of senior RJD leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui getting a plum role in the new ministry. "A section of the RJD is already celebrating the likelihood of Lalu's daughter Misa Bharati being made deputy chief minister. But I hope Lalu ji can control his family and the likes of dons-turned-politicians, or else the BJP would benefit from its allegation that we ushered in Jungle Raj II," the senior JDU leader said.
With Manjhi's exit, Nitish's bargaining power vis-à-vis number of seats he wants his men to contest in any alliance could weaken as it is assumed Manjhi would take away a huge chunk of Mahadalit votes, for long JDU's bastion.
Even on the administration front, Nitish has very little time. The law and order situation has taken a dip under Manjhi. Sectors like education, road construction and health, too, need a boost. "But, in an election year, everybody fills up key posts according to electoral convenience and not administrative need," said a senior BJP leader.
Manjhi had filled up key posts with "his men" - mostly Dalit officials. "Nitish has to fine tune any transfers he carries out, so as not to hurt the sentiments of officials belonging to a particular section of society," an official said.
Manjhi, though unseated, has left landmines for Nitish to deal with. The chief minister's office released a list of decisions he took even on Friday. Giving 5 decimal land to homeless Dalits, free power to marginal farmers. 13 months' salary to policemen, quota to Dalits in government contracts, taking over private schools, 35 per cent quota for women in government jobs and regularising service of contractual teachers are just a few of them.
"Apart from financial, many have political ramifications and reversing or delaying them could trigger a series of protests by beneficiary groups," a senior official said.
Not surprisingly, the JDU's former ally, the BJP, is gearing up to corner Nitish on a day-to-day basis. Nitish's second tenure has been marred by graft charges. Even Manjhi had alleged bridges that should cost Rs 5 crore were being built for Rs 50 crore. "We're ready with files to bust Nitish's claims of honesty and graft-free government," a BJP leader said.
The BJP is willing to play the "Insult to Mahadalit" card. It is, however, not sure how to deal with Manjhi. "It cannot be denied he has become a force within the Dalit community. But he is a seasoned politician and we do not know what he will demand for an alliance. We might even convince him to fight the polls all alone," said a senior BJP leader. The BJP knows there will be no Modi wave in the Assembly elections and it has to make inroads into Lalu and Nitish's bastions if it wishes to come to power. Nitish's fourth tenure as chief minister is likely to be more about politics than good governance.
