FLOP SHOW: Akshay Kumar and Saif Ali Khan in Tashan, which, like many other big budget films, tanked this year

Hindi cinema, the pundits often say, is a true barometer of the times. Indeed, well before panicky offices started shutting shop in the aftermath of an unprecedented global financial crisis, Bollywood had shown that all was not well in the land of technicolour dreams. If 2007 was boom time in Bollywood, 2008 is bust.

Consider this. Of the 80-odd films that hit the screens this year, an amazing 60 bombed. The duds aren’t just the small fry. Even big-ticket releases such as Krazzy 4, Tashan, Bachna Ae Haseeno and Drona — all with big banners and stellar star casts — sank without a trace. Golmaal Returns is a surprising success in a field of failures.

So what’s gone wrong? Promotion was never a problem, for the films were all marketed well — with posters, trailers, music releases, merchandise, tantalising interviews and so on. You can’t blame the failures on the scripts either, for screenplay has never been Bollywood’s strength.

Of course, 2008 has not been a good year for cinema in many ways. Some believe that blasts in crowded places have made people wary of cinema halls. And this year, there were a few major events that kept people indoors — such as the IPL matches. The year wasn’t all that rosy in financial terms. And to add to it all, ticket prices shot up everywhere.

But those are extraneous reasons. Bollywood, many believe, has to take most of the blame for the duds. Theories abound on the sudden spate of flops. Director Madhur Bhandarkar — and he’s smiling like a satisfied cat after the success of his new film Fashion — has his own take on the subject.

“Fashion toh hit hai, bhai (Fashion is a hit, bro),” he points out when asked about the dismal performance of the box office this year. Bhandarkar takes pot shots at “other directors.” Says he: “The director’s vision is what makes or breaks a film. He should know exactly what audiences are craving for.”

“The multiplex business is huge today and the scope is immense. So it’s not like viewers have no money. They are willing to spend but you need to give them something worth their money, ” he adds.

Of course, it’s not always clear what an audience wants. Some of the films, for instance, got rave reviews, only to be rejected by the audiences. But occasionally, argues director Sudhir Mishra, it works when a director picks up a subject that is in the news. His 2007 film Khoya Khoya Chand — which was praised by most critics for good performances and an interesting plot — did not run in the halls for long. Perhaps the plot, with the Bollywood of the Sixties as the backdrop, was too dated for a young audience. Some experts believe that a film sells if its theme is current.

Elaborating with an example, Mishra says if communalism is in the air, and a film is made on that, it may work even though it’s not exactly a hot topic for a movie. “Unfortunately, most of the movies this year were just plain masala potboilers,” Mishra asserts.

Industry watchers agree the tastes of audiences have changed to an extent. According to trade analyst Taran Adarsh, a reality-based story — something that people can identify with — is today’s winning formula.

“Audiences want a humble and grounded story that matches what they experience in their everyday lives. That is the reason why Mumbai Meri Jaan, Aamir or A Wednesday (tales of ordinary people caught in the vortex of terrorism) worked while Tashan and Bachna Ae Haseeno didn’t. Audiences will now reject anything that is sub-standard, no matter who it stars or what its budget is,” feels Adarsh.

Of course, a flop today is not always a financial loss — for producers tend to break even if a film does not run for long. In the first few days of release, a film recovers most of the money spent. “A well-marketed movie can recover its cost irrespective of the review it gets, or even the audience verdict, because all that comes later,” says Vikram Bhatt, whose horror film 1920 turned out a surprise hit this year. “With several shows opening the film, money flows in quickly. Marketing today is persuasive enough to get viewers into the theatres. Whether they liked it or not comes after they’ve paid for the ticket,” he points out.

High expectations — audiences’, producers’ and distributors’ — are also killers. So feels Bhushan Kumar, whose Karz remake with Himesh Reshammiya bit the dust. The film was a much-awaited one. “A hit or a flop wholly and solely depends on the way a movie release is planned. Rock On released with about 300 prints and, say, 5-6 shows in the theatres. It was declared a hit because all shows were ‘houseful’,” says Kumar.

But Reliance, he goes on to add, released its film Karzzzz with 900 prints and 16 shows in multiplexes. “They thought it could be a mega hit and they were wrong. All shows did not go houseful and the box office reflected poor collections. I would call it bad planning and extreme ambitiousness,” he fumes.

Significantly, most films this year — including Tashan and Bachna — were all about songs and dances, with elaborate costumes and good looking bodies but little substance. Last year’s films — and 2007 was a particularly good year for Bollywood —had stories and themes that were memorable. Chak De! India was about an Indian women’s hockey team’s dreams and Cheeni Kum was about a relationship between an older man and a young woman. Guru was a biopic, and Taare Zameen Par looked at a dyslexic child. Jab We Met, Namastey London and Partner had interesting plots.

Bhandarkar sees the surprise element playing a huge role in clicking with audiences. “People have been watching the same kind of films for years. They have grown out of those. In Fashion, I put them into a fantasy world. But most directors are still stuck on the same idea of romance, heroism and unreal twists and turns. Try an innovative film like Jab We Met and it works.”

Sudhir Mishra sees films as art. And art patrons, he argues, are an unpredictable lot. “With art, you never know why something works and another doesn’t. People accepted Hazaaron Khwaishein Aisi, which was totally out of tune with their thought processes, but they didn’t like Khoya Khoya Chand. What I mean is some movies flop because they are meant to,” the producer-director reasons.

Taran Adarsh is the most optimistic of the lot. “The year is not over yet. Many more promising movies still have to come and the final verdict can always swing in the industry’s favour. I hope that happens because I am looking forward to a lot of movies this winter,” smiles the analyst.

This winter does promise to be hot. Dostana, Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi, Dev D and Ghajini are awaiting release, and the immediate future looks bright and dollar green. The rest, of course, depends on the masses.