Richmond (Virginia), Oct. 24: In this capital of Virginia, which is replete with memories of some of the darkest chapters in America’s struggles for racial equality, the people are dreading the “Wilder effect” on November 4.

Douglas Wilder was elected governor of Virginia in 1989, the first black man to become governor of a state in the US. He is now mayor of Richmond.

Wilder, grandson of slaves, was a popular lieutenant governor in Virginia, when he contested for the state’s top job and exit polls on election day predicted a landslide victory for him. But when the counting of votes began, there were surprises from all over this large southern state.

The votes which Virginia’s white population had told exit pollsters that they had cast for Wilder were nowhere in the ballot boxes.

White voters had lied because they did not want to admit that they had not voted for a black man and they did not want to be dubbed racists in a state which had denied education to Wilder because of the colour of his skin.

When the counting of votes finished on the night of November 8, 1989, Wilder, a Democrat, had a majority of less than half per cent. Under Virginia law, if a candidate wins by less than one per cent, an automatic recount is called for and the state pays for the recount.

A losing candidate can also request — but has to pay for — a recount.

After the recount, Wilder squeaked through by less than four tenths of one per cent, a margin of just 6,741 votes out of more than two million.

With 11 days to go for a US presidential election that has aroused wild interest all over the world. Black Democrat Barack Obama has a lead of seven per cent over White Republican John McCain in Virginia.

An average of the latest opinion polls today gives Obama 51.5 per cent and McCain 44.5 in this state.

Prof. Mark Rozell of George Mason University in Virginia, author of nine books and editor of 16 others, many of them on Virginia politics, believes that in November this year, once again “exit polls may show a bigger margin than what Obama may actually get” in the ballot boxes.

Rozell, whose girlfriend is Bengali and plans to visit Calcutta once again soon, told this reporter yesterday that children of first generation Asian immigrants in Virginia favour Democrats in this election and would help Obama in his effort to win Virginia.

There is a “generational divide” in the Asian community in this state where the parents of new, younger Asians tended to vote for Republicans.

There is a large Indian American presence in the northen areas of Virginia, especially in what is known as the “Dulles corridor” near the Dulles International Airport which has many information technology firms.

But Rozell was categorical that notwithstanding what opinion polls may suggest, “Obama has lost the majority of white votes” in this state. He can only win through a coalition of his rock solid black support here and liberal white voters.

Virginia has 13 votes in the electoral college of 538 votes that will elect the next US president.

Gerry Connolly, chairman of the Board of Supervisors of Virginia's prosperous and rapidly growing Fairfax county, told this reporter yesterday that Obama could statistically win the presidency even if he lost Virginia.

But he reasoned that McCain could not get to the White House if he lost Virginia because of the likely Republican share of the electoral votes on November 4.

Virginia used to be a solidly Republican state, the only southern state that did not vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 although Carter was a son of the south.

The last time Virginia voted for a Democrat in a presidential election was in 1964 for Lyndon Johnson. George W Bush won Virginia in 2004 by as much as eight points.