The countries comprising BRIC, Brazil, Russia, India and China, were identified as emerging global powers at the start of this century by Goldman Sachs, and South Africa was added in 2011. Now that the BRICS summit in Goa has come and gone, it is time to give the grouping a health check. China's is the world's second largest economy; it is five times larger than India's, although its growth rate is slowing as it arrives at the middle-income trap. But its economy is still robust by the standards of advanced countries, and China is playing a more assertive role in world affairs. Russia till recently was the world's 10th economy and, being dependent on energy exports, is suffering from Western sanctions and depressed prices of oil and gas. But the West's concerted attempt to isolate the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has failed, and Russia, over the past two years, is the only country capable of changing the facts on the ground. South Africa no longer enjoys the prestige of the Nelson Mandela years and is hard hit by labour and student unrest as also political turmoil, with its president, Jacob Zuma, and several ministers accused of corruption and tainted by scandal. The African National Congress, the dominant party since 1994, is losing momentum.

But the most fragile member in the BRICS is Brazil. The French president, Charles de Gaulle, dismissed Brazil as a country only fit for samba, carnival and playboys. And, indeed, when the military dictatorship ended in 1985 and before Fernando Cardoso sorted out the currency and controlled inflation, it lacked any wherewithal for a role in world politics. That situation dramatically changed under the Workers' Party governments of the two presidents, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-10) and Dilma Rousseff, Lula's successor from 2011 till 2016. Mainly thanks to Lula and high oil prices, Brazil became the world's seventh largest economy, and built alliances with developing states with a distinctively Third World flavour and strong undertones of anti-Americanism. Rousseff herself became the victim of intense American surveillance, as exposed by Edward Snowden in 2013.

Brazil was included as a participant in the G20, which helped its citizens like José da Silva and Roberto Azevêdo to be elected to head the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Trade Organization respectively. When the New Development Bank, a Chinese initiative to challenge the prominence of the West-dominated World Bank and international financial institutions, was established by BRICS, Brazil was an essential participant, as it was in the India-Brazil-South Africa group for South-South cooperation and the Brazil-South Africa-India-China for climate change. In Latin America, the PT government of Brazil consolidated various sub-regional groups and in Brazil itself, its success in staging both the Football World Cup and the Olympics is a unique achievement that testifies to Lula's skill in mobilizing other governments, sporting bodies, civil society and the world media. Brazil's leadership helped India, Russia and China, the footprint of which in Latin America was yet to grow to optimal levels, although opponents of the BRICS saw a socialist tide flowing through South America through Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia, the Kirchners in Argentina and Rafael Correa in Ecuador, all motivated by Lula, leader of the biggest and most populous nation in Latin America.

Rousseff's biggest mistake, and probably the underlying reason why she suffered impeachment, was her unwillingness or inability, after winning the presidency by a small margin in 2014, to make the political deals and alliances necessary to run a minority government in Brazil's multi-party system. Her impeachment last August was instigated by the right wing, though her accusers are guilty of far greater malpractices because Rousseff has neither been convicted nor charged with any concrete act of corruption. The present patchwork government in Brasília after the Lula/Rousseff years may hang together for the remaining two years of Rousseff's term, but it has lost its international reputation.

With the leadership crisis first in South Africa and now Brazil, the efficacy of BRICS, IBSA and BASIC has become precarious. Brazil's economy is in decline, threatening the PT's success in bringing 50 million poor Brazilians into the middle class. The impact of the Brazilian economic and political crisis is damaging because geographically and politically, Brazil has to be the axis around which its predominantly Spanish-speaking neighbours must turn and coordinate their policies. Without Brazil's input, the many political and economic issues confronting Latin America will become much harder to resolve. Although the allegations of corruption may differ, the political futures of Lula and Rousseff hang together, because the PT's opponents are fearful about Lula's popularity, which, unlike Rousseff's, is likely to be long-lasting. This anxiety gives them an added incentive to eliminate him along with Rousseff from the political scene. Lula and his wife are indicted for bribery, corruption and money-laundering of $1.1 million in respect of ownership of an apartment. A criminal conviction would bar him, now 71 years old and the only leader with the skill and charisma to fight for the PT's project and legacy in the presidential race in 2018.

The allegation against Rousseff in the Brazilian Parliament was a technical one; concealment of the size of the budget deficit for political gain. Her massive support - she had a 70 per cent popularity rating in 2013 - because of the pro-poor policies followed by Lula and herself withered away because of the economic downturn and widespread unhappiness at the dwindling quality of life - issues arising from the global slowdown that the PT could not have influenced. That the currency lost half its value and some stadia for sporting tournaments has added to Rousseff's predicament. For the past two years Brazil has suffered its worst recession since the 1930s, and this, combined with a corruption scandal that implicated 60 per cent of politicians across all parties, brought about Rousseff's downfall, since one of the prime motives of her accusers was to terminate the investigation and secure amnesty for themselves. Among these opportunists is the present president, Michel Temer, of the market-friendly centre-Right, formerly Rousseff's vice-president. Within a few weeks of his tenure, Parliament introduced austerity measures and capped government spending on welfare. The intention is to overhaul the pension system and labour laws and privatize entities such as airports, ports, railways and oil. In other words, the ousting of Rousseff was only one aspect of a more fundamental agenda, namely, to arrest Brazil's sharp economic downturn and combat the corrupt practices pervading the nation.

In spite of Brazil's role in the United Nations and various international groupings during the tenures of Lula and Rousseff, world leaders including Narendra Modi have been reticent about voicing support for the ousted PT leaders. Russia, China and India strengthened their politico-economic bilateral relations with Brazil considerably in recent years and will be concerned about what the future holds. Rousseff has none of the charisma or mass popularity of Lula, although she will most likely drag him down with her. Expressions of sympathy were in any event likely to be of no consequence, and the other members of groupings like BRICS, BASIC and IBSA will have to wait for a strong successor to emerge from the PT with a record of public service and a proactive attitude to Third World solidarity if BRICS is going to have any chance to shape the international agenda. The same applies to the ANC of South Africa. The wait is likely to prove to be a very long one indeed.

The author is a former foreign secretary of India