Turkey is witnessing some of its biggest opposition protests in years as tens of thousands of citizens descend upon public squares and outside government buildings, night after night, to oppose what they view as the latest move by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to consolidate power. Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul’s popular, two-time mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, on March 19 on allegations of corruption, sparking public anger. Mr Imamoglu is seen as the most potent challenger to Mr Erdogan who has been in power since 2003. Mr Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party is the main Opposition force against Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party that has ruled Turkey for long. While corruption is a deep-rooted problem in Turkey, many view Mr Imamoglu’s arrest as a suspiciously-timed move aimed at weakening the opposition to Mr Erdogan. The Opposition leader was arrested days before he was to be selected as his party’s candidate for the next presidential election: the Republican People’s Party named him as its nominee anyway. A day before Mr Imamoglu was arrested, Istanbul University invalidated his degree. Holding a university degree is an eligibility criterion to compete for the presidency.
While the election is technically scheduled for 2028, many analysts expect Mr Erdogan to call the vote earlier, amidst a cost of living crisis that shows no sign of disappearing. He won a third term as president in 2023, but just a year later, his party was trounced in local elections. Independent polling from last year suggested that his popularity had fallen below 50%. Still, even those polls underscored how he retains significant support — over 40% of those polled. A generation of Turks has never seen any leader other thanMr Erdogan who is especially popular among older citizens. Still, the protests should serve as a wake-up call for Mr Erdogan. Unlike protests in recent years in Iran, for instance, that have focused on the state of the economy or personal freedoms, those hitting the streets in Turkey are opposed primarily to one man: their president. The police have cracked down on protesters, arresting hundreds, including some journalists. That is unlikely to help Mr Erdogan’s popularity. Meanwhile, the Opposition has asked citizens to boycott products made by companies associated with the ruling party. Mr Erdogan is not known to compromise — a demonstration of strength has long been his calling card. However, it might be time for him to read the Turkish tea leaves.
