Donald Trump, the president of the United States of America, has threatened Russia with hefty secondary tariffs if the country does not work with Washington to arrive at a peace deal with Ukraine. While issuing the warning earlier this week, he set a deadline of 50 days — which would end in early September — for Moscow. Secondary tariffs, which Mr Trump said could be as high as 100%, would target exports of countries that trade with Russia. But while such economic penalties could well hurt Russia and nations that buy its oil, such as India, China and Turkey, there is little evidence that these measures will put enough pressure on Moscow to end the war. Mr Trump's inconsistent attitude towards the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, also raises questions about what the US might actually be willing to do. The only certainty, in the event that Mr Trump does impose such tariffs, is further economic chaos — globally — and a breakdown of the little progress that Mr Trump has made in trade deals with major economic partners like China and India.

Since the launch of Mr Putin's full-fledged war on Ukraine in 2022, Russia has faced thousands of sanctions from the US and its allies. The Russian economy, while undoubtedly hit by this punishment, has not only survived but has avoided recession — unlike the Ukrainian economy. Moscow has responded to Mr Trump's latest threat with scorn, and there is no reason to believe that Mr Putin will buckle now. Given Mr Trump's past track record of keenness to work with Mr Putin, it is hard to know whether the US will actually follow through on its threat. If Mr Trump does impose high secondary tariffs, it would bleed India and China. While their oil purchases from Russia will not cost more, it will become much more expensive for American firms to import Indian or Chinese goods, reducing their competitiveness in the US market, their top export destination. Moreover, such secondary tariffs would unravel the trade deal with China that Mr Trump's team has painstakingly negotiated with Beijing — one of only a handful of successful economic agreements it can boast of. It would also set back attempts by the US and India to ink an economic agreement of their own. American consumers will suffer higher prices and Mr Trump a loss of face. The war in Ukraine needs to end. But like sanctions, tariffs will not do it.