A weather system that threatened to drench Durga Puja revelry in Kolkata from Ashtami has been delayed, the Met office said on Monday.
That does not mean Kolkata and adjoining areas are going to see dry weather over the next few days.
Rain and thunderstorms are likely on Ashtami, Navami and Dashami but the intensity is unlikely to be on the higher side, said a Met official.
“A low-pressure area is likely to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea around October 13. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and reach south Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh coast as a well-marked low-pressure area around October 15,” said a Met bulletin on Monday.
Monday and Tuesday are likely to see fair weather in south Bengal. Rain is “likely” on Wednesday and “very likely” on Thursday and Friday in Kolkata, East and West Midnapore, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia and North and South 24-Parganas, said the Met official.
The system was supposed to have taken shape on Sunday (October 10), according to the previous forecast. The “chances of rainfall activity were likely to increase” because of strong southeasterly winds on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
The Bengal coast is unlikely to be the target of the system. But like most systems in the fag end of the monsoon, the latest is also tipped to be a strong one. The outer band of the system is likely to trigger rain in the coastal districts of Bengal, including Kolkata, along with strong gusts of wind.
“The system will generate the flow of strong southeasterly winds. The winds will be able to just reach the coastal areas on Wednesday. But as the system nears land, the winds will make more inroads in Bengal,” said Sanjib Bandyopadhyay, the deputy director general, IMD, Kolkata.
The south-west monsoon was likely to withdraw from most parts of the state, including Kolkata, by Wednesday, said a Met official.
“The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of Bengal. Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of the monsoon from most parts of Bengal during the next two days,” the Monday bulletin said.
A weather scientist said monsoon currents could have played the perfect supporting role to the system to intensify rainfall in the city.
“But the withdrawal of monsoon would mean the arrival of northwesterly winds from Kashmir. The cold northwesterly winds in the upper reaches of the atmosphere and the relatively warm southeasterly winds coming from the system can also lead to the formation of thunderclouds,” he said.
The withdrawal of southwest monsoon starts from Rajasthan. The usual date of the start of the process is September 17. The usual date of the withdrawal of monsoon from Kolkata is October 10.