Vadgam: The irony of politics has not left this Gujarat constituency untouched: majority of the people accept Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani is the best candidate in the fray, but then predict his loss in the same breath.

Vadgam shot to instant fame when Jignesh - who along with young Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor created waves in Gujarat with their strident anti-BJP stand - announced his decision to contest the Assembly seat. The Congress went out of its way to oblige him by pulling out its sitting MLA, Manilal Vaghela.

While the move to shift the "popular" sitting MLA to another constituency - Idar - might have rendered two seats uncertain for the Congress, Jignesh is bearing the brunt for his inordinately late decision to contest.

Vaghela's exit at the last minute has not only caused heartburn in the Congress, but also left Jignesh with too little time to create even basic acquaintance with the local people.

Congress leaders as well as political observers feel Jignesh committed a blunder as he could have created a far greater impact in the election by freely campaigning throughout the state.

A senior Congress leader said: "The state leadership was not in favour of Jignesh contesting, least of all a seat like Vadgam that was in the Congress's pocket. While both Vadgam and Idar are in trouble now, Jignesh could have won any reserved seat in urban areas, including Ahmedabad where he lives."

Both Alpesh and Jignesh lowered themselves in the eyes of their supporters by throwing their hats into the electoral ring, but Hardik stands tall primarily because of his neutrality.

Jignesh is considered so valuable that activists from all over Gujarat and states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi have not only contributed to his electioneering but have also come to Vadgam to campaign.

A group of young men distributing pamphlets in a village told The Telegraph that they were here on their own and that "Jigneshbhai" had not requested them to come. "We are spending our own money to stay here and eat and meet people to tell who he is," one of them said.

The youths refuted the allegation that the Congress was not supportive, saying sitting MLA Vaghela had asked his men to campaign for Jignesh and provided all his contacts. One of them took out a Congress scarf and flags, saying they were using them to reach out to people.

Congress leaders too expressed sympathy for Jignesh while lamenting his "strategic mistake".

What has worsened Jignesh's plight is former Congress MLA Dolatbhai Parmar's decision to field his son Ashvinbhai from the seat.

Dolatbhai is a popular leader who won in 2002 but lost in 2007. Vaghela was given the ticket in 2012 and won by a healthy margin of nearly 22,000 votes. Dolatbhai thought Jignesh's entry might snatch Vadgam from the Congress forever and so fielded his son as an Independent against the wishes of the high command.

This has split the Congress organisation in Vadgam with many loyal party workers siding with Parmar because of personal rapport.

Along with the BSP, there are six Independent candidates who will cut into the Congress votes as they are said to have a tacit understanding with the BJP.

Former Congress leader Shankersinh Vaghela's Jan Vikalp Morcha too has fielded a candidate in Vadgam and is expected to slice away significant sections of Rajput votes.

Locals describe Jignesh as an "outsider" and an "imported idealist" and curse the Congress for the self-goal.

Many elderly voters in villages are unaware of the Congress's decision to leave the seat in Jignesh's favour and declared their intention to vote for the "Hand".

There is a strong Muslim presence in Vadgam. Many of them professed loyalty to the Congress and said they did not know Jignesh was contesting the seat.

Gulab Singh, a Rajput, said: "I am a traditional Congress supporter, but I will vote for Mevani because he is a good candidate. But he should not have come here so late."

Three-four men sitting beside him instantly got into an argument, reeling out the pros and cons of a split in the Congress's votes because of Parmar.

The conclusion was: "The BJP may be the unintended beneficiary."