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Regular-article-logo Monday, 19 May 2025

IF BULLETS WON'T BREAK PAKISTAN, BANKRUPTCY WILL 

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FROM JAYANTA ROY CHOWDHURY Published 11.01.02, 12:00 AM
New Delhi, Jan. 11 :    New Delhi, Jan. 11:  A study by the Cabinet Secretariat, which has been sent to the Prime Minister, feels that any prolonged border war with Pakistan will see India's western neighbour going bankrupt. The study points out that Pakistan is burdened by a huge debt, which amounts to nearly 90 per cent of its GDP, and the lion's share of this is denominated in foreign currency loans. A precarious situation to be in even at the best of times. 'Pakistan's debt basket will bloat the moment it starts fighting ... every week of war will cost it at least Rs 400 crore, much of it in hard foreign exchange. It will not be able to sustain the cost,' officials involved in drafting the document said. Most global arms dealers may well shun Pakistan unless they pay hard cash, the study says. Of course, political considerations will see China continuing arms supplies to Pakistan on credit at any time. But what could makes things critically difficult is that the junta has to repay nearly $ 11 billion of its total foreign debt of $ 40 billion within the next two years to global creditors. This has happened despite rescheduling some $ 12 billion in debt with the Paris Club and an arrangement with the IMF for $ 1.3 billion in poverty reduction assistance. Involvement in a war, which the global community does not support, combined with failure to pay back money could stop flow of foreign currency loans and grants, which make up approximately a quarter of the Pakistan government's revenues, the study feels. The already weak Pakistani currency is expected to depreciate by some 10-15 per cent in the event of a war, crossing the Rs 70 to a dollar mark. This, in turn, would make repayments costlier for Pakistan. Already, the Afghan conflict has taken a toll on trade, production and government revenues, with an estimated loss of $ 2 billion or Rs 10,000 crore in Indian currency. Export earnings, mainly from textiles, farm goods, paper, construction works and remittances - which accounts for about $ 8 billion and helps Pakistan pay back its debt as well pay for its military hardware - is expected to be badly hit. Pakistan's GDP, approximately 15 per cent of India's, has been growing but poorly through the current fiscal at just 3.1 per cent. The increase expected due to the inflow of aid can well be reversed with a war, the document says. Growth could slow down to about 2 per cent, while inflation would steadily rise from about 6-7 per cent to double digits.    
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