The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that global oil consumption could rise till 2050, with India taking the lead in growth in demand over the next decade.

The Paris-based energy watchdog’s observation is a departure from 2024, when it had forecasted that oil demand may plateau or fall by the end of this decade. The agency in its ‘current policies scenario’ said consumption may rise by 13 per cent till the middle of the century.

According to IEA, energy demand in India is expected grow the fastest, increasing by 3 per cent each year on an average to 2035. China was responsible for more than half of the global increase in total energy demand over the past 25 years, but as its economy changes shape, demand will grow 1.1 per cent each year on an average to 2035, much lower than the 3.6 per cent annual increase seen between 2015 and 2024, it noted.

The agency projected that oil demand, excluding biofuels, will rise by more than 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 105 mb/d in 2035 in the CPS, mainly because of the increased use of oil in road transport in emerging markets and developing economies for aviation and shipping and as petrochemical feedstock.

Forecasts from IEA — established following the 1973 oil shock — are used globally as a benchmark by governments and energy companies to plan policy and investments.

“Oil remains the dominant fuel to 2050 in the CPS (current policies scenario). China accounted for more than 75 per cent of oil demand growth over the past 10 years, but this picture is changing, and India becomes the new epicentre of growth in oil demand,” IEA said.

According to the agency, India will lead global oil demand growth over the next 10 years, with almost half of the additional barrels produced globally to 2035 heading in its direction, it added.

Its oil use increases from 5.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 to 8 mbpd in 2035 as a result of rapid growth in car ownership, increasing demand for plastics, chemicals and aviation and a rise in the use of LPG for cooking.

“Oil demand in India increases by 2 mbpd to 2035 — the largest increase in any country — and continues to rise through to 2050. The next largest increases to 2035 are in Africa (1.2 mbpd) and Southeast Asia (1 mbpd),” it said.

With limited domestic production, India’s dependence on imports to meet this rising demand will only increase.

IEA projected that import dependency in India rises from 87 per cent in 2024 to 92 per cent in 2035, despite government efforts to promote domestic production.