Berlin: Michael Ballack looks at some recent scorelines involving Italy and Germany and draws a conclusion. “We really stand no chance,” the Germany captain jokingly said on the eve of Tuesday’s semi-final match between Germany and Italy. “They beat us clearly and dominated us. Everything speaks against Germany, it’s a wonderful feeling.”

Ballack wasn’t serious, but he could have been.

Italy thrashed Germany 4-1 in a friendly in March that nearly cost coach Juergen Klinsmann his job. And AC Milan routed Bayern Munich, then still Ballack’s club, 4-1 in the Champions League.

Germany haven’t lost since that March game, a run of nine matches, including a five-game winning streak at the World Cup ? their best start in history. Italy, however, are unbeaten in 23 games, their second-longest streak.

Germany have never beaten Italy in four World Cup matches, including two draws. At the 1970 semi-finals in Mexico, Italy won 4-3 in extra time in one of the World Cup’s most dramatic games. They also met in a final, in 1982, when Italy won 3-1, their most recent World Cup match. Both teams have three titles.

Italy also lead the all-time series 13-7, with eight draws. World Cup history speaks for Italy, but Germany are playing at home, at their favourite stadium in the country. Germany have never lost at Dortmund’s noisy stadium and has only one draw in 14 games.

“We are really looking forward to playing in Dortmund, it adds to our faith and confidence,” Ballack said. “We are hot and we want to be in the final.”

“The Dortmund crowd is a phenomenon,” Germany midfielder Tim Borowski said this week. “The spectators will be the 12th man for us.”

Ballack gave three reasons he thought were enough for Germany to win ? the team is on a roll, its confidence is great and the support of home fans.

The captain was hobbling after the Argentina match with a calf injury but proclaimed himself fit Monday.

Midfielder Torsten Frings has been suspended for the semi-final against Italy.

Fifa launched an investigation after television executives from Italy said they had found evidence that Frings threw a punch at Argentina forward Julio Ricardo Cruz in the fracas that followed Germany’s quarter final shootout win on Friday.

A Fifa spokesman said the 29-year-old would be suspended initially for only one game, making him eligible for the World Cup final on Sunday if Germany defeat Italy in his absence.

Frings will also be on probation for the next six months and will face at least another one-match ban if he re-offends during that period, the spokesman said. He was also fined 5,000 Swiss francs.

Team manager Oliver Bierhoff was informed of the suspension soon after the side arrived in Dortmund.

“The team is very disappointed about the Fifa decision. We found out about it on the plane on the way here to Dortmund,” Bierhoff told reporters.

“We haven’t seen the written reasons, but will accept the FIFA decision. Frings will get a special training programme to be completely fit for the final.”

Klinsmann’s young, attacking team may need all the support it can get. Germany had a tougher road into the semi-finals, only getting past Argentina on penalties after a 1-1 draw in extra time.

Italy cruised past Ukraine 3-0 and has conceded only an own-goal. Italy’s toughest obstacles in reaching the World Cup semi-finals have come from home. The Azzurris have persevered amid a Serie A corruption scandal and the grave condition of former teammate Gianluca Pessotto, who was hospitalised in Turin after falling out of a window.

“Italy is one of the best teams in the world and that’s why it’s in the final four,” Klinsmann said. “It has great history and tradition and deserves the highest respect. We think that with our style and game we can beat them, though. And that’s what we are going to do tomorrow night.”

Miroslav Klose, Germany’s striker who leads the tournament with five goals, has recovered from a calf injury and will be available.

Italy midfielder Mauro Camoranesi has a right knee injury and is doubtful, while defender Alessandro Nesta is also likely to miss the game with a right thigh injury.

While Germany can be sure of huge support, Italy won’t be without friends from the large Italian community in the area.

Most of the immigrants come from Italy’s southern regions of Calabria, Puglia and Sicily. Midfielder Gennaro Gattuso is from Calabria and three of his aunts live in Germany.

“It would bring them a huge amount of joy if Italy were able to beat Germany, although we’ve got to remember it’s just a game of soccer,” Gattuso said.

Probable teams

Germany: 1-Jens Lehmann; 3-Arne Friedrich, 21-Christoph Metzelder, 17-Per Mertesacker, 16-Philipp Lahm; 19-Bernd Schneider, 18-Tim Borowski/ 5-Sebastian Kehl, 13-Michael Ballack, 7-Bastian Schweinsteiger, 20-Lukas Podolski, 11-Miroslav Klose.

Italy: 1-Gianluigi Buffon; 19-Gianluca Zambrotta, 23-Marco Materazzi, 5-Fabio Cannavaro, 3-Fabio Grosso; 20-Simone Perrotta, 21-Andrea Pirlo, 8-Gennaro Gattuso; 10-Francesco Totti; 9-Luca Toni, 11-Alberto Gilardino.

Head-to-head

In World Cup

May 31, 1962: West Germany drew Italy 0-0 (Santiago, 1st round)
June 17, 1970: West Germany lost to Italy 3-4 in extra time (Mexico City, semi-final)
June 14, 1978: West Germany drew Italy 0-0 (Buenos Aires, 2nd round)
l July 11, 1982: West Germany lost to Italy 1-3 (Madrid, final)

Last 5 matches

March 23, 1994: Germany bt Italy 2-1 (Stuttgart, friendly)
June 21, 1995: Germany bt Italy 2-0 (Zurich, friendly)
June 19, 1996: Germany drew Italy 0-0 (Manchester, Euro Cup)
Aug. 20, 2003: Germany lost to Italy 0-1 (Stuttgart, friendly)
March 1, 2006: Germany lost to Italy 1-4 (Florence, friendly)

Compiled by Mohandas Menon

TACTICAL SNEAK PEEK

Germany coach Juergen Klinsmann has kept a settled 4-4-2 formation throughout the World Cup while Italy boss Marcello Lippi has changed his line-up for every match and operated a number of tactical systems. In the quarter final with Ukraine, Italy used Luca Toni as a lone striker but Lippi might be tempted to bring back forward Alberto Gilardino for Tuesday’s showdown with Germany and switch to a 4-3-1-2 system with Francesco Totti behind two forwards.

GERMANY

Defence: Germany’s tall centre-backs, Per Mertesacker and Christoph Metzelder, have improved beyond all recognition since their nervous start in a 4-2 win over Costa Rica. Fullback Philipp Lahm takes every opportunity to get forward on the left. Arne Friedrich is less active on the right, usually relying on passes to Bernd Schneider as his outlet.
Midfield: Michael Ballack and Torsten Frings form an aggressive partnership in the centre of an orthodox four-man midfield. Ballack gets forward more often, leaving Frings to scurry around in a defensive role. Ballack is an excellent header of the ball and will be the dangerman at set-pieces. Left winger Bastian Schweinsteiger has not been in his best form at this World Cup but can be a big threat, particularly when combining with his Bayern Munich teammate Lahm.
Attack: Striker Miroslav Klose has scored five times for the second World Cup in succession. He acts as a target man and will try to chest the ball down and control it rather than head it on to striker partner Lukas Podolski, who has scored three goals himself. Oliver Neuville is the super-sub and came off the bench to get a last-gasp winner against Poland.

ITALY

Defence: With Alessandro Nesta almost certain to miss out again due to a groin injury, Marco Materazzi, who was suspended for the quarter final win over Ukraine, is expected to return in place of the relatively inexperienced Andrea Barzagli. Captain Fabio Cannavaro has been in outstanding form at the heart of an Azzurri defence that has conceded just one goal in five matches and will win his 99th cap against Germany. Fullbacks Gianluca Zambrotta and Fabio Grosso like to get forward and have done so to good effect in the knockout stage.

Midfield: The most stable part of Lippi’s team. Andrea Pirlo operates in a deep, playmaker’s role in front of the defence with Gennaro Gattuso and Simone Perrotta covering plenty of ground in their harrying roles ahead of him. If Lippi plays with two out-and-out strikers then Francesco Totti, showing signs of returning to full form after his three-month injury lay off, will be expected to play as an attacking midfielder.
Attack: With a single striker, Totti would be free to play close to the front line but if Lippi opts for a more offensive line-up, with Gilardino and Toni operating as a pair, then Totti will drift deeper. Inzaghi is likely to start on the bench but is an option if the Italians need a goal in the second half, while Iaquinta could offer fresh legs if Toni tires.

(Reuters)