The decision by Donald Trump, the president of the United States of America, to suspend all military aid to Ukraine days after a public spat with that country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the White House, could be a turning point in Russia’s war on its smaller neighbour. Mr Trump’s decision, which made headlines across the US media on Monday night, could deny Ukraine cutting-edge weapons systems worth billions of dollars at a time when it needs a near-constant infusion of fresh military equipment amid a relentless war. But the latest move by Mr Trump’s administration might also force Europe, which has tried to carefully balance Mr Trump’s ego and its own security calculations, to take a firmer position on strengthening its defence manufacturing capabilities. Officially, at least, Mr Trump’s accusation against Mr Zelensky is that he is unwilling to agree to a peace deal with Russia on the US’s terms. Indeed, the Ukrainian leader has insisted on security guarantees accompanying any ceasefire deal with Moscow. Mr Trump and his administration have since repeatedly portrayed Mr Zelensky as a war-monger — no matter that his country is, in fact, the victim of an invasion — and themselves as peaceniks. However, through his actions, Mr Trump appears poised to militarise the world even more.
The United Kingdom last week announced an increase in its defence spending. After a summit with other European nations allied with Ukraine, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, announced a two-billion-pound kitty to help Kyiv buy advanced weapons. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has proposed a plan to pull together around 800 billion euros to bolster the continent’s defence. Mr Trump has already made it clear that it does not view Europe’s security as a priority and that the continent needs to do more to defend itself. So these steps by the UK and the EU leaders are not surprising. But Europe is unlikely to be able to fill the gaps in Ukraine’s needs caused by the US funding pause while also bolstering its own defences. Ironically, all of this will only prolong the Ukraine war: Russia today has less incentive to compromise, while its maximalist demands will be unacceptable to Europe. If Mr Trump truly wants peace in Ukraine, he needs to rethink his approach. During his White House clash with Mr Zelensky, Mr Trump had said it would make for great TV. But great TV does not make for good diplomacy.