The name Karakalpakstan may not ring a bell. Geographically, it covers about 40% of Uzbekistan and is an autonomous region with its own legislature. It is possibly one of Uzbekistan’s poorest regions, although the longest continuous stretch of the most significant river in Central Asia, the Amu Darya, flows through Karakalpakstan. The confluence of the Panj and Vakhsh rivers in Tajikistan forms the Amu Darya. Unhindered, the river would have benefited Karakalpakstan the most. However, based on the Soviet-era water allocation quotas, Turkmenistan diverts about 12-15 cubic kilometres of water annually from the river into the Karakum Canal, among the largest irrigation and water supply canals in the world, spanning 1,375 km.

In 1991, the newly-independent Central Asian states agreed to continue following the Soviet-era water allocation quotas. While some regional frameworks, such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia, have been established, the fundamental allocation percentages set in Protocol 566 continue to influence water distribution from the Amu Darya. This obviously does not account for changed circumstances, environmental needs, or the economic realities of the independent states.

Turkmenistan continues to draw water from the Amu Darya. I do not know if Turkmenistan compensates Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan has gained significantly from the diversion of Amu Darya waters in terms of expanded irrigated land, GDP growth, rural employment, industrial development, population distribution in previously uninhabitable desert regions and urbanisation, particularly the growth and development of the capital city, Ashgabat, and surrounding areas. These benefits have come at significant environmental costs to Karakalpakstan, most notably the near-disappearance of the Aral Sea.

The Aral Sea has lost about 90% of its volume since the 1960s, the most dramatic man-made environmental disaster in history. The drying of the Aral Sea has increased temperature extremes in the Karakalpakstan region, reduced precipitation, and led to widespread dust storms carrying salt and agricultural chemicals from the exposed seabed. I felt distressed seeing what I saw during a recent visit. No population should be denied their natural endowments and be forced to suffer because their resources are diverted elsewhere.

If you are reading this online, chances are that your device has a QWERTY keyboard layout, which was designed to prevent jams in mechanical typewriters. Typewriters are long gone and there are at least five other keyboard layouts that are more optimal. Yet, the QWERTY layout persists. This is an instance of path dependency. Path dependency refers to the phenomenon where past decisions or events have a lasting impact on future outcomes, even if the circumstances change or the earlier choices are no longer optimal, or if better alternatives have become available.

Construction of the Karakum Canal began in 1954. The canal was extended in phases over several decades until the late 1980s. The Karakum Canal and the Protocol 566 represent a centralised approach to water management that did not account for the environmental impacts on the Aral Sea. The Soviet Union disintegrated in December 1991, but water allocation among the Central Asian countries continues to be guided by Protocol 566. These countries are yet to establish a framework where downstream countries pay upstream ones for water resources. Water allocation remains a political and a diplomatic issue rather than a commercial transaction in the region. But political and diplomatic processes could be cognizant of path dependency and strive to deliver justice to Karakalpakstan.

Karakalpakstan is mostly desert; but for about a millennium between 500 BC and 500 AD, the region was a thriving agricultural area. Remnants of more than 50 Khorezm mud fortresses are a testament to its heyday. I hope that there comes a time in not too distant a future when Karakalpakstan regains its past glory or at least does not resemble a wasteland as it does now.

Anamitra Danda is a Senior Visiting Fellow, ORF, and an environmentalist. Views are personal