Politics in Bihar can begin to churn and froth anytime. In election year, turbulence is nothing that should take anybody by surprise; it comes stapled onto the package. The engrossing aspect of the current rumblings in Bihar is that the tussle is not between the two parties — Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) — that have taken turns to monopolise power for more than three decades, often as allies, but within the ruling coalition that Mr Kumar helms in partnership with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Mr Kumar, despite being the junior partner in the alliance and the widespread perception of him suffering indifferent health, is eyeing a record fifth straight term as chief minister of Bihar. The electoral prospects of Mr Prasad’s RJD can be kept aside for the moment; it is too early in the day to speculate on that. The focus should be on where Mr Kumar’s ambition to continue ruling the state leaves his ally, the BJP.

A strong section of the BJP has long advocated that the party should go it alone; many state-level leaders believe that they enjoy enough heft to be able to coast to power jettisoning Mr Kumar and setting up a direct contest with the RJD. Clearly, the persistent, and often vociferous, lobbying from the state-level BJP leadership has not yet been able to convince the BJP bosses in Delhi. Mr Kumar remains necessary to their larger scheme. And not merely because the JD(U) is a critical component of the coalition that holds aloft the Narendra Modi government. Mr Kumar’s astounding political promiscuity and willingness to switch sides to stay on top of Bihar’s power grid must tell the BJP leadership that nothing about him should be taken for granted.
Mr Kumar, on the other hand, must reckon with his failing health — exposed by lapses of manner on multiple public occasions — the absence of a strong party network, and his own cracked glass credibility. He probably finds it necessary at this stage in his career to give in to the BJP in order to keep his chair — that would probably explain why all seats in the recent ministerial expansion went to the BJP. The election late this year will certainly be his last bid for Bihar’s helmsmanship. Trust Mr Kumar, among the most artful and self-serving of politicians, to do all the bending and switching the purposes of power may require.