Agartala: It will be a battle for survival versus consolidation for the ruling Left Front and its principal challenger, the BJP, as Tripura goes to the polls on Sunday.
The outcome of the polls, being held under massive security arrangements, could not only make the Left Front or the BJP take control of the state's reins for the next five years but also have a deep impact on the national political landscape in run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, according to political analysts.
A win for the Left will not only see it protect its citadel against the collective might of the BJP but also give a clueless Opposition something to look forward to in 2019. A BJP win, on the other hand, will help it consolidate its base in the Northeast.
A lot has changed since the 2013 Assembly election that gave a thumping victory to CPM-led Left Front against the Congress and the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT) alliance.
Five years down the line, the Left, predicted to win at a canter till a year back, is facing its toughest battle against the BJP. Without a single MLA in 2013 to displacing the Congress as the main challenger, the BJP has come a long way. But it will need more than a buzz to unseat the Left in its citadel.
Moreover, unlike the Naga People's Front (NPF) in Nagaland and the Congress in Meghalaya, which go to the polls on February 27, the Left remains a united house, its vote share seems intact and in chief minister Manik Sarkar, it has a credible mascot.
The Left Front has seen a steady rise in its support base since 1993 when it bounced back to power, defeating the Congress-Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti (TUJS) alliance. From a vote share of 44.35 per cent in 2003, it went up to 52.32 per cent in 2013. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, it got 64 per cent vote share in the state against 15.2 per cent of the Congress and 5.70 per cent of the BJP. But the CPM has now started to see the BJP as the prime contender, something admitted by CPM Politburo leader Prakash Karat during one of his rallies.
Over 50,000 BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers were engaged to build the party in Tripura as the reorganisation began in 2016 when Sunil Deodhar became the party in-charge and Biplab Kumar Deb the state BJP president.
With 67 per cent of the population below poverty line and failure to create more jobs owing to alleged non-cooperation from the Centre, the BJP has fuelled hopes for achchhe din (good days) during its campaign. It has harped on issues like termination of 10,323 government teachers, Rose Valley scam, massive unemployment, failure to introduce the Seventh Pay Commission benefits, crimes against women, alleged political murders and the killing of journalists. Its leaders also did a mandatory round of temples in the state.
The BJP's alliance with Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT), which demands Twipraland, a separate state for indigenous communities, could be the icing on the cake. Their aggressive demand superseded everything other regional parties like the INPT and the NCT had to offer.
The Left Front, on the other hand, wants to ensure "peace and development". Sarkar, the lone star campaigner of the Left against the might of the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has addressed more than 50 rallies focussing on grassroots issues and the BJP's "communal politics".
The counting will take place on March 3.
Over to the voters.
