BJP candidate from Jamshedpur (East) Raghubar Das at a padyatra in Telco Colony on Tuesday. The leader began his yatra sharp at 6am from his Agrico residence. “Are thand nahin hai sweater ki kya jaroorat (It’s not cold yet, why do you need a sweater),” said a visibly relaxed Das to an associate. Soon they began with slogans — “Apka neta kaisa ho, Raghubar Das jaisa ho”. The rally moved towards East Plant Busti in Burmamines. After campaigning for an hour there, Das boarded an SUV, proceeding towards Telco Colony. There he visited Barua Canteen, where he joined local party men for a door-to-door visit, meeting residents, vendors and passers-by alike. The three-time legislator took elders’ blessings and implored voters to strengthen BJP by electing him. It was a hectic day for Das, who visited localities in his constituency before concluding the day's work at Golmuri late in the evening. Picture by Bhola Prasad & compiled by Pinaki Majumdar

Jamshedpur, Nov. 17: Two BJP seniors, a Samajwadi Party (SP) turncoat with Congress’s blessings and two rebels are all set to ensure the high-profile seats of Kolhan is no cakewalk.

Jamshedpur (West) is no longer the unquestionable bastion of BJP poster boy Sarayu Roy, thanks to former Samajwadi state chief Banna Gupta fighting on a Congress ticket.

In Jamshedpur (East), state BJP chief Raghubar Das is looking to win himself a fourth term but could be troubled by a party rebel who might make things easier for JVM’s Abhay Singh.

And Jugsalai, the only constituency among those in the region going to polls in the first phase to have a mix of rural and urban voters, is looking good for JMM’s Dulal Bhuiyan, though rivals are more confident this time, given his thin victory margin in 2005.

The Congress has sprung a surprise — arguably unpleasant — in Jamshedpur (West) by fielding Samajwadi state president Gupta, who had finished a close second in the last Assembly elections by polling 34,733 votes against Roy’s 47,428.

A joint nominee of the Congress and Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P), the man with a strong support base in Kadma and Sonari stands a good chance of upsetting the BJP equation. “A Congress ticket will definitely help me win. I am certain that the people of Jamshedpur will vote for change this time,” Gupta said. Scoffing at such claims, a confident Roy said the electorate would rather reject a “turncoat politician”.

The Congress’s real cause of worry, however, is the minority vote bank — 100,000-odd Muslim votes are likely to be the deciding factor in Jamshedpur (West).

The party’s Kolhan in-charge Jayadev Jena, camping in the city to iron out differences ahead of polls, admitted Muslim leaders were upset over the decision to field Gupta in a traditional minority seat.

In 2005, the Congress had fielded Eva Shamim who polled barely 9,000 votes as LJP’s Hedaytullah Khan bagged a majority of 34,000.

Echoing the sentiments of Muslims, a Congress leader said that Jamshedpur (West) had always been a seat for minority candidates. “The party has cheated us by fielding an outsider (read Gupta). His victory will block the future prospects of minority leaders from the seat.”

Roy, on the other hand, is harping on the development he initiated in the constituency during his tenure. He claimed clearance of the ambitious Mango drinking water project as a major achievement that would benefit 200,000 people. “Winning is not an issue. The polls will only decide the victory margin,” he claimed.

In Jamshedpur (East), three-time MLA and state BJP president Raghubar Das is looking for a fourth victory. He is pitted against Congress-JVM candidate Abhay Singh.

Though this is a BJP stronghold — the party having won in 2005, 2000, 1990 and 1980 — opponents’ pre-poll alliance has boosted the chances of Singh, the JVM’s central committee secretary. In 2005, the Congress’s, Ramashray Prasad, had polled 38 per cent of the total votes to finish second to Das.

Singh is highlighting the unfulfilled promise of land ownership rights to 86 slums and the delay in commissioning the Moharda drinking water project. Das, however, countered: “Slum dwellers will get land ownership rights once the party is voted to power. We are going to form the government with two-third majority in the Assembly.”

Infighting in the BJP may also cost the state party president. Upset at not being offered a ticket, Madhulika Mehta, once a trusted BJP lieutenant, is contesting as an independent and may split the vote bank. In the Jugsalai reserved (SC) seat, former revenue and land reform minister and JMM candidate Dulal Bhuiyan is facing a direct contest with BJP’s Rakhi Rai.

Rebel BJP candidate Haradhan Das may tip the scales in favour of Bhuiyan who is looking for a third consecutive term. Das, who polled 40.56 per cent votes against Bhuiyan’s 56.63 per cent in 2005, is upset over the party ticket being given to an “outsider”.

While Das had lost the last election to Bhuiyan by a mere 2,644 votes, Rai, fighting on an Ajsu ticket, finished fourth with only 6,225 votes. “I am a son of the soil and do not require any party ticket. My victory is certain,” the rebel leader said. The Congress, which has never won an election from the seat, has fielded Ritika Mukhi while the RJD has selected Sharda Devi as its candidate.

Given its mix of urban and rural areas, Naxalism will be a factor in Jugsalai. “Rising extremism will be an issue,” said Rai. But Bhuiyan maintained that people would rather vote for infrastructure development measures initiated by him in the constituency.