The simmering discontent among farmers over the unfulfilled demand for a legal guarantee on minimum support price has added to the crisis the BJP is grappling with in Uttar Pradesh following the exodus of OBC leaders in the run-up to the Assembly elections.

According to insiders, ground reports suggest that farm anger against the BJP in western Uttar Pradesh and some central districts persists and could deal a heavy blow to the party when the region votes in the initial phases starting February 10.

“The farm laws have been repealed but the farmers are saying that their other key demand for legal guarantee on MSP remains unfulfilled,” a BJP MLA from the region said, adding that other issues such as the rising prices of essential commodities were also driving anger against the party.

The dominant agrarian Jat community had been at the forefront of the yearlong farmers’ agitation at Delhi’s borders. The Bharatiya Kisan Union’s Rakesh Tikait, an influential Jat leader, had led the protests at the Ghazipur border and is now reported to be actively campaigning against the BJP.

The Jats constitute just around 2 per cent of the population of Uttar Pradesh but they are concentrated in the western region where in some districts they make up approximately 18 per cent of the population. They wield considerable influence in over 100 Assembly seats.

The power of the Jats, however, gets unleashed when they combine with the Muslims, who far outnumber the Jats in many districts of western Uttar Pradesh. Together, they can upset the BJP’s calculations for the region.

The 2013 communal riots in Muzaffarnagar had helped the BJP to sway the Jats, breaking the traditional bond between the two agrarian communities weaved by farmer leader Charan Singh. The farmers’ protest, however, seems to have brought the two together again with the common aim of teaching the BJP a lesson.

“The Jat-Muslim combination is a matter of concern for us but we are working to split the Jat voters and ensure the non-Jat communities rally behind us,” a BJP MP said.

Party strategists claimed it was erroneous to conclude that all Jat voters had turned against the BJP.

“The RLD continues to enjoy the trust of a large number of Jats. The BJP’s ideology attracts the youths in the community,” a BJP general secretary said.

The leader acknowledged that the BJP might suffer some electoral setbacks but it would not be too significant.

However, the coming together of young RLD boss Jayant Chaudhary, grandson of Charan Singh, and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav can pose a deeper challenge to the BJP in areas where the Jat-Muslim population drives electoral politics.

Jayant has been actively campaigning on the ground and aligning himself with the farmers’ agitation that has struck a chord among not only the Jats but also other communities who depend on agriculture.

The RLD chief has addressed many farmers’ meetings in the region and sought to drive home the point that the Jats and the other agrarian communities need to show their electoral strength to compel the government to listen to them.

Besides the farmers’ protest, price rise and joblessness have further queered the pitch for the BJP.

BJP leaders, however, feel that despite these negatives, the visible improvement in law and order due to the “bold steps” of the Yogi Adityanath government against criminals would pull back large sections of voters supporting the SP-RLD combine.