Feb. 25: Economic honey may flow in India next year. But if the country wants to become the blessed land of milk and honey, it needs to breed many more Gangas and seek the counsel of Lalu Prasad.

The white revolution is losing its zeal and India may have to become an importer to fill its milk cans, according to the economic survey tabled today.

The survey has projected an economic growth of 9.25 per cent next year and has prescribed several reforms (see Business). However, what may catch the eye of Indian parents is the grim prophecy on something without which no child’s morning is complete.

The national demand for milk has caught up with supply, which some see as evidence of growth in incomes. The demand is expected to jump from 112 million tonnes this year to 180 million tonnes by 2022, necessitating a 5.5 per cent annual growth in milk production, the economic survey said.

“India may need to resort to imports from the world market if it fails (to achieve 5.5 per cent annual growth),” the survey warned. The annual growth in milk production over the past five years has remained below 5 per cent.

Lalu Prasad, the bovine fan who blames feed scarcity and mechanised harvesting for the ills plaguing milk production

“We have a fairly good idea about what technologies we need to deploy to increase milk production — but the technologies haven’t spread fast enough or far enough yet,” said Shiv Prasad, head of livestock production at the National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI) in Karnal, Haryana.

One such technology is crossbred cattle like Haryana farmer Jit Ram’s Ganga — created by the artificial insemination of frozen-and-thawed semen from high-yielding Holstein cows from the Netherlands into eggs from hardy, disease-resistant local cattle.

Ironically, Jit Ram’s son Rajbir Singh was standing with his murrah (high-yielding) buffalo in a fairground in Haryana today when the contents of the survey were made public. Surrounded by a cacophony of moos and bellows, Rajbir’s buffalo was taking part in the livestock world’s equivalent of Miss India.

The buffalo yields 20 litres of milk a day — four times more than is available from India’s average buffalo — and Singh has pitched the animal into the livestock contest organised by the NDRI. A few years ago, Singh’s father Jit Ram proudly picked up the top prize at the annual competition for Ganga, their crossbred cow that yielded 60 litres of milk a day.

Animals like Ganga and the murrah buffalo have played a key role in bringing about India’s white revolution — a steady growth in milk production that doubled from 54 million tonnes in 1990 to 112 million tonnes in 2010.

But scientists and livestock sector analysts fear that a rise in domestic milk demand and inadequate efforts to transfer milk-enhancing technologies from research laboratories to livestock farmers threaten such gains.

The NDRI director’s namesake and a Prasad whose love for bovines is part of the political lore, RJD leader Lalu Prasad said the production scare was inevitable. “Somebody should find the cost of kutti (hay cut down to feed cattle) in the market. It’s Rs 6 per kg and still not available in the market. I have 160 cows and still I cannot get someone who can supply me with 10 trucks of kutti.”

Lalu Prasad, who famously threw his weight behind cowsheds in Calcutta during a CMC eviction drive in the mid-nineties, pointed a finger at mechanised harvesting, too. “Because of mechanised harvesting of wheat, half the hay is left in the fields and later burnt by farmers. Producing milk has become unprofitable and that is why nobody is opting for milk production,” the politician said.

According to NDRI’s Prasad, India has only 12 million crossbred cattle among an estimated cattle population of 203 million. While an average nondescript cattle in India yields less than 2 litres of milk each day, high productivity crossbred animals deliver 12 litres or even higher.

“Crossbreeding demands infrastructure for artificial insemination, liquid nitrogen canisters to store frozen semen, trained veterinarians, and healthcare services for livestock at the grassroots level,” Prasad said.

The economic survey has listed ineffective breeding programmes, limited availability of quality fodder, inadequate veterinary infrastructure, lack of vaccinations and a limited capacity for milk processing among threats to sustaining India’s milk gains.

The survey said economic growth and increased health consciousness among people is likely to increase the proportion of income spent on milk and milk products in the coming years. While the domestic demand for milk has grown at about six million tonnes per year, the incremental increase in milk production over the past 10 years has been only 3.5 million tonnes per year.