Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh on Friday said projections by scientists and doctors suggested that the number of coronavirus cases in India could start peaking in July-August and the curve could begin to flatten from October, which could mean prolonged or recurring lockdowns.

Addressing the media through a videoconference organised by the Congress, Amarinder said: “Many able people, top-class professionals, including scientists and virologists, have released a report which suggests (the number of cases in) India could peak by mid-September. Boston University and Johns Hopkins (University) have also said (the number of cases in) India will start peaking in July-August. The curve will start flattening in October.”

Pointing out that the projections were “frightening” and “horrendous”, Amarinder said: “The reports fear around 58 per cent people could be affected in India. We are seeing the figures are rising every day even as testing is very low, nothing compared to the population. Things are not good. This is the start of the battle; we are in for a long haul. Look what is happening in the US, Italy, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, UK… we have to keep that in mind.”

The chief minister said the rate of testing and the available infrastructure showed that “we aren’t fully geared up for the battle as a nation”.

“No state has the kind of resources required to fight this battle. Central aid has so far been inadequate. The package of Rs 15,000 crore announced yesterday (Thursday) is nothing. We will need Rs 1.5 lakh crore to Rs 2 lakh crore. Poor workers and their families have to be fed. This is the duty of the state. We are feeding everybody. In Ludhiana alone, there are around 10 lakh migrant workers and we are giving them free food,” Amarinder said.

The Congress leader’s assessment of the crisis acquiring dreadful dimensions was reflected in his announcement of the preparations.

“Punjab has a huge problem of people who have returned from abroad; 95,000 came to Punjab directly and 45,000 came via Delhi. To quarantine them was a major operation. Right now we have only 132 confirmed cases apart from 11 deaths, but we are geared up for four phases. In the first phase, we may need 2,000 beds, then 10,000, 30,000 and finally may go up to one lakh. We are taking over private hospitals, arranging for testing kits, ventilators, PPEs,” Amarinder said.

Although the Centre on Thursday issued a circular mentioning that states cannot buy PPE (personal protective equipment) kits on their own, the Punjab chief minister said the state was manufacturing locally and was ready to supply to other states as well.

On the lockdown, Amarinder said: “The cabinet will discuss the matter but my opinion is that it should continue. Relaxations will be given for harvesting village and district-wise from April 15. We are having a bumper wheat crop and that has to be harvested, procured and stored. We will complete it by May 31.”

The veteran leader laid great emphasis on the distribution of foodgrains among the poor, saying godowns were already full and storing the new yield would become difficult.

“I will tell the Prime Minister to distribute grains for six months. We are looking at 185 lakh tonnes of wheat over the next month and temporary storage facilities are being set up in the state. But our concern is that the FCI (Food Corporation of India) doesn’t pay for damaged crop. So it is better to distribute the existing stock and create storage capacities,” Amarinder said.

Insisting that lockdowns could not be for an indefinite period, he said: “We have asked the big companies not to retrench workers and continue paying them their wages. We are feeding them. Villagers are feeding migrant labourers who have not fled from Punjab. But that cannot continue for long.

“Somebody will have to bear the cost. The Centre should assist the states. Our own money (GST) is stuck. Of the Rs 6,700 crore, Rs 3,700 crore was released recently. But where is the assistance? We don’t have the resources to continue like this.”