The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to deliver a record dividend payout to the Centre for FY26, providing a timely cushion as the government grapples with macroeconomic pressures stemming from the West Asia crisis, including elevated crude prices and potential external sector strains, sources said.
The apex bank had transferred an all-time high surplus of ₹2.69 lakh crore in 2024–25, up 27 per cent from ₹2.11 lakh crore in the previous year. The dividend for the current fiscal is expected to be finalised at the RBI’s Central Board meeting later this month.
A higher-than-expected surplus transfer would help ease fiscal pressures by offering the government additional headroom to manage rising subsidy burdens, particularly on fuel and fertilisers, while containing the fiscal deficit. It could also ease the pressure for additional market borrowings at a time when global uncertainties have heightened volatility in capital flows.
The transferable surplus is determined under the revised Economic Capital Framework (ECF), which mandates maintaining the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) within a range of 4.5 to 7.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet to safeguard against financial risks. While a rupee depreciation may result in forex trading profits, analysts are keeping a close watch on how the central bank will manage mark-to-market losses on foreign securities while also maintaining provisioning requirements under ECF.
In the Union Budget for FY27, the Centre has projected ₹3.16 lakh crore in dividends and surplus transfers from the RBI, public sector banks (PSBs), and financial institutions, a 3.75 per cent increase over the current fiscal. However, officials indicated that actual realisations could exceed these estimates.
PSBs have reported strong performance in FY26, aided by improved asset quality, sustained credit growth, and higher income. Aggregate operating profit rose to ₹3.21 lakh crore, while net profit grew 11.1 per cent year-on-year to a record ₹1.98 lakh crore, marking the fourth consecutive year of profitability for the sector.
