India’s merchandise exports to the US from sectors such as marine items, gold, electrical, and electronics are expected to decline by $5.76 billion this year due to increased American duties, according to the data analysis of think tank GTRI.

However, it added that India’s competitive position in select product segments may help cushion some of the losses.

Sectors which can witness modest gains include textiles made-up, apparel, ceramic products, inorganic chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

The US has announced an additional 26 per cent duty on Indian goods barring pharma, semiconductors and certain energy goods from April 9. The 10 per cent baseline tariffs are there from April 5-8.

“Using detailed trade data and tariff schedules, the analysis estimates that India could see a decline of $5.76 billion, or 6.41 per cent, in exports to the US in 2025,” Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

In 2024, India exported $89.81 billion worth of goods to the US. It said that several key product groups are likely to see reductions. Exports of fish and crustaceans may fall by 20.2 per cent; iron or steel articles by 18 per cent; diamonds, gold products by 15.3 per cent; vehicle and parts exports by 12.1 per cent; and electrical, telecom, and electronic products may decline by 12 per cent.

Other categories such as plastics, carpets, petroleum products, organic chemicals, and machinery are also expected to be negatively impacted, it added.

According to the Delhi-based think tank, energy products, including petroleum, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals as well as copper, have been exempted from country-specific tariffs.

These high-value items accounted for $20.4 billion or 22.7 per cent of India’s exports to the US in 2024.