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regular-article-logo Friday, 19 April 2024

Barclays raises GDP growth forecast for India by 110 basis points to 7.8 per cent

Barclays also upped its 2024-25 GDP forecast to 7 percent from 6.5 per cent

Our Special Correspondent Mumbai Published 02.03.24, 11:37 AM
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Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for India by a huge 110 basis points to 7.8 per cent for 2023-24 after the blowout number in the third-quarter of this fiscal.

“Considering today’s print and strong momentum put up by growth numbers across Q1-Q3 of 2023-24, we raise our 2023-24 GDP growth forecast to 7.8 per cent with upside risks given Q1-Q3 2023-24 growth is currently averaging 8.2 percent,” Rahul Bajoria, managing director and head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics at Barclays, said in a note on Thursday.

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Barclays also upped its 2024-25 GDP forecast to 7 percent from 6.5 per cent.

“We expect the steady domestic growth momentum to continue, supported by continued increases in government capex, much anticipated rising private investment, and monetary easing,” he noted.

The growth projection of 7 per cent for 2024-25 is similar to that of Reserve Bank of India. However, Bajoria pointed out that the robust GDP number could lead to interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period of time as there would be “little urgency’’ for the monetary policy committee (MPC) to cut them.

He added that four members of the MPC remain hawkish if one were to go by the minutes of the February meeting and the strong growth will buy them more time to watch how inflation behaves. Barclays now expects a cut in the July-September period from its earlier expectation of April-June.

Meanwhile, a study by the SBI said the GDP growth for 2023-24 could be within striking distance of 8 per cent.

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