The Supreme Court verdict reviving conspiracy charges against Lalu Prasad has cast a shadow on the future trajectory of the RJD.
Lalu's close associates say the verdict of the apex court is not just about jail and bail. "In the morning even before the verdict was delivered, Laluji was calm and said that at the most he would have to fight the cases and go to jail. He knows that his own political career is finished and that he has handed over the legacy to his sons," said a confidant. Both of Lalu's sons are ministers in the Nitish Kumar cabinet.
But beneath the bravado lies a lurking worry over the prospects of the RJD. Till now, Lalu was relatively free to hold party meetings and meet his supporters. But the Supreme Court, which has asked the CBI court to finish the trials within nine months, has ensured that he gets very little time other than to meet lawyers and go to courts when personal appearances are required.
The first causality could well be the mega anti-BJP rally Lalu has planned in Patna's Gandhi Maidan in August. Without the presence of Lalu and his full support, it will be difficult to hold such a rally, RJD leaders admitted in private.
If there is a conviction in the lower court, Lalu may have to spend his time in jail in Jharkhand. In 2013, when he was convicted in another fodder scam case (RC 20/A), there was a "friendly" JMM government in Jharkhand as well as a UPA regime at the Centre which the RJD supported. This time, the BJP is in power in Jharkhand and a hostile NDA government at the Centre. His followers say that accessibility to Lalu in jail will be greatly restricted. Moreover, if the CBI insists that Lalu can apply for bail only after he has been in jail for half the tenure, the stay may be prolonged.
The long absence of Lalu from Patna is what his supporters apprehend the most. "In the absence of Lalu it will be very hard to control RJD ministers, leaders, legislators and even workers. After all, it is Lalu who cracks the whip whenever RJD leaders like Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, Taslimuddin or Bhai Birendra openly criticise the Grand Alliance government. Neither Rabri Devi nor his two sons have the control over party as Lalu has," conceded a senior RJD leader.
Senior party leaders feel that the man who would benefit most from the apex court order is Nitish Kumar.
"A weakened Lalu suits Nitish fine. It will mean Lalu and his family relying more and more on Nitish for the continuation of the alliance with a grossly reduced bargaining power. More RJD ministers and MLAs will turn to Nitish in the absence of Lalu," said a former RJD MP.
It is a tough battle for survival that Lalu has to fight and he has his back to the wall.
