Patna, July 26: With the Grand Alliance breaking down, two persons will play a key role in determining the political future of Bihar - governor Keshari Nath Tripathi and Assembly Speaker Vijay Kumar Choudhary.
The Speaker's role is crucial because his decision is final on defections and recognising splinter groups, a scenario well within the realms of possibility. The Speaker's decision can be challenged in court, but the legal process takes so long that it defeats the purpose of immediate action.
The governor's role is key because he can give Nitish Kumar, who has accepted the support offered by the BJP and joined the NDA and who the governor has asked to continue as caretaker chief minister for now, sufficient time to prove majority on the floor of the House.
"A wide range of alternatives are available with the governor when a ruling alliance breaks down and there is no clear-cut majority of a single party," a senior lawyer pointed out.
With the political ball up in the air after the resignation of chief minister Nitish Kumar, the RJD is ruing not insisting on holding on to the Speaker's post.
"Unfortunately, both these persons (Speaker and governor) will prove to be advantageous for Nitish Kumar if the JDU decides to tie up with the BJP," said a senior leader of Lalu Prasad's party, lamenting the fact that his party chief had conceded the post of Speaker to the JDU.
Lalu, however, had ceded ground on the Speaker's post after a round of political tug of war.
After the Grand Alliance's victory in the 2015 polls, both RJD and the JDU had wanted the Speaker's post. But Nitish dug in his heals, and Lalu eventually gave in.
The current occupant of the Raj Bhavan in Patna is no stranger to the turbulence of Bihar politics.
Keshari Nath Tripathi was governor in February 2015 as well, when Jitan Ram Manjhi had refused to resign as chief minister despite Nitish asking him to do so. Governor Tripathi had asked the then Speaker Uday Narayan Choudhary to hold the vote outside the Assembly by placing a box for the MLAs. The Speaker had rejected the governor's request. The vote of confidence eventually did not take place as Manjhi quit his post. Governor Tripathi, 82, a reputed lawyer and constitutional expert by profession, is no stranger to controversies. Recently, Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee accused Tripathi, who is also the Bengal governor, of "speaking like a BJP block president" when he had called up the chief minister expressing concern over the Bengal government failing to check communal strife in Basirhat.
When Tripathi was the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Speaker from 1997 to 2004, his ruling that "defection is a continuous process" - when as a group of BSP MLAs deserted Mayawati to support the minority BJP government - had raised eyebrows. Surprisingly, when the Samajwadi Party came to power after that, it kept Tripathi as Speaker for 20 months before he resigned himself.
Bihar Speaker Vijay Kumar Choudhary, who started his political career as a Congress MLA after quitting a bank probationary officer's job, is one of the most likable politicians of Bihar who is articulate in both Hindi and English.
"But after all he has been handpicked by Nitish Kumar," mourned an RJD leader.
The RJD's worry about the Speaker's role is not without reason. The previous speaker, Uday Narayan Choudhary, recognised a splinter group without even verifying the signatures of the MLAs and also disqualified eight dissident JDU MLAs from the House, ensuring that nobody else rebels against Nitish.
There is already talk of JDU MLAs rebelling against Nitish again. There is talk of Congress and RJD MLAs wanting to switch sides as well. With the RJD having 80 MLAs, the Congress 27, the JDU 71 and the NDA 71, the Speaker can play a decisive role.
