Patna, Feb. 10: Chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, since yesterday an unattached member of the Assembly as he has been expelled from the party whose government he heads, continues to claim he has the numbers to go through and pass a trial of strength on the floor of the House.
But his bravado notwithstanding, his numbers are stuck at 14 in the House whose effective strength stands at 233. That's 103 short of the majority figure of 117.
It is even less than the number of MLAs, 18, who revolted against the party leadership in the Rajya Sabha bypolls last year.
Expelled JDU legislator Rajiv Ranjan claimed 56 MLAs are backing Manjhi.
The Nitish Kumar camp scoffed at such claims and instead accused Manjhi loyalists of using pressure tactics.
"They are offering ministerial berths and BJP tickets to our MLAs," chief ministerial-hopeful Nitish said.
Manjhi in turn hinted that JDU legislators were being terrorised and threatened.
His followers pointed out that the action of the Speaker disqualifying eight of the dissident MLAs has proved to be a decisive factor.
"MLAs are being threatened that their membership would be withdrawn if they support Manjhi," alleged dissident JDU MLA Gyanendra Singh Gyanu.
UNI reported that Independent MLA Pawan Jaiswal has given a notice for a no-confidence motion against Speaker Uday Narayan Choudhary, apparently at the behest of the rebels. Vinay Bihari, one of the most vocal ministers in the Manjhi camp, admitted today that they are not in a position to prove their majority on the floor of the House without the BJP's support.
There are talks of a separate party being formed under Manjhi, with BJP support, before the Assembly elections in Bihar later this year if the camp's bid to retain power does not work out.
"The fact is that we will not be able to make it without the BJP's support. The Delhi election results have been shocking and proved to be a setback for us too. In fact, we had been fully dependent on the BJP for support. Having said this, one should keep in mind that we are not weak. We will continue our fight. There are some talks about us either joining the BJP or forming a new party under our leader, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and fighting the upcoming elections with support of the BJP," Bihari, the art, culture and youth affairs minister, told The Telegraph.
He also confirmed that he had called up Nautan (West Champaran) MLA Manorama Prasad and offered her a ministerial berth on Monday.
BJP sources said the failure of Manjhi to add to his strength is primarily due to the fact that they were not in a position to assure them that they would be given party tickets in the next Assembly polls.
"Quite a few JDU MLAs have been in touch with us. But the central leadership of the party told us that while they were welcome to join the BJP, there would be no guarantee that they would be given tickets in the Assembly polls. Most of these MLAs have backed out," a senior BJP leader told The Telegraph.
The second problem is confusion over the future of Manjhi. "Manjhi may have sympathy and even support in the Dalit community. But it is not a winning combination. At the most he can influence the polls by getting alliance candidates to lose by slicing away Mahadalit votes. On the other hand, the support base of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar together is a far safer bet for going to elections than being a candidate of Manjhi. Manjhi will be effective only if he is a part of the NDA and supplements his Dalit votes with NDA's vote bank," said a JDU MLA.
For the upper caste MLAs, Manjhi is a political pariah.
"Manjhi made that infamous statement in which he dubbed the upper castes as foreigners. He had been taking regular potshots at upper castes. How can I go to Manjhi and face my own voters belonging to my own caste," said a JDU legislator from south Bihar.
The people surrounding Manjhi such as Narendra Singh, Bhim Singh and Mahachandra Singh do not evoke confidence among the MLAs. "While Bhim and Mahachandra are yet to win an election, Narendra Singh is known to be arrogant," said a JDU MLA.
