Chief minister Nitish Kumar in Patna on Monday. Picture by Deepak Kumar

New Delhi, June 10: L.K. Advani’s angered dare to Narendra Modi has not merely churned up a crisis in the BJP, it has cast the future of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in perilous balance.

The sudden isolation of Advani has pushed Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) a step closer to the brink of a break with the NDA. Should predominant pro-Modi sentiment in the BJP rebuff Advani in the current stand-off, the JD(U), the second largest component of the NDA, might pull out sooner than expected.

“The current drift in the BJP is clearly in favour of Modi and we will find it extremely difficult to work under such a dispensation,” sources close to Nitish told The Telegraph today. “If Advani becomes irrelevant in the BJP, it will mean having to work with Modi as the effective boss, that is not acceptable, that is our clear position.”

Nitish himself was circumspect today, only saying that his party was keeping an eye on developments in the BJP and would “discuss the situation with party leaders and take a decision soon”. Clearly, Nitish is averse to pre-mature brinkmanship and might still be banking on the power struggle within the BJP to neutralise Modi’s surge to the centre stage.

Increasingly, though, the sense within the Nitish camp is that Modi is in “unstoppable velocity” and the JD(U) will be forced to “make a tough choice” sooner than expected. “People like Advani played a central role in the creation and running of the NDA, if they are no longer at the decisive helm, it is very difficult for us to stay on,” said JD(U) general secretary K.C. Tyagi. “Who is there for us to talk to? Without Advani in the lead there is no NDA. As far as Modi is concerned, our position has consistently been clear, he is not acceptable to us as leader of the alliance.”

JD(U) leaders are resigned to the fact that Narendra Modi stands anointed the new face of the BJP. What they are hoping against hope is that he won’t emboss himself as leader of the alliance as well. “Advani is the senior-most active leader of the NDA and he is the natural choice as spearhead of the alliance,” a JD(U) MP said. “But the drift in the BJP suggests to us that the ground is shifting very fast in favour of Narendra Modi. We too shall have to adjust our position accordingly.”

Breaking with the BJP isn’t an easy prospect for Nitish. The alliance is based on a winning caste arithmetic which will instantly come apart should Nitish decide to part ways. Filling the gap will be an uphill task, especially with local adversary Lalu Prasad fresh from a rousing victory in the Maharajganj Lok Sabha byelection. But as one Nitish aide said today: “Power isn’t everything, it cannot always take a backseat to belief and ideology. With Modi coming to the forefront, the rules of this alliance will radically change and that is something we are averse to. There will be a price to pay, but there will be a price to pay for having to work under a Narendra Modi dispensation as well.”

Although he has never named Narendra Modi, Nitish has repeatedly and unequivocally underlined his refusal to be part of any arrangement headed by the Gujarat chief minister. For nearly a decade now, the western leader has not been welcome in Bihar to campaign for the NDA. Relations between Nitish and Modi have, at best, been frosty. At the chief ministers’ meeting on internal security last week in New Delhi, the two did not so much as look at each other when their paths crossed. “Differences between them are ideological,” said one Nitish aide. “But over time an element of personal antipathy too has crept in, it is tough to see Nitish Kumar working with Narendra Modi, much less as a junior ally under him.”