Patna and Bhagalpur, Sept. 2: It's a battle of nerves as the NDA and the JDU-RJD-Congress alliance wait for the other to blink first and reveal names of candidates and seats they would contest from.
For now both sides are holding their cards close to their chests, while ticket-seekers spend sleepless nights. The reason is obvious. No party wants to be the first to face rebellion when the names are announced. "Knowing the name and caste of the main rival helps one select the right candidate," said a senior BJP leader.
The JDU-RJD-Congress alliance had announced that the RJD and JDU would contest 100 seats each and the Congress 40 seats. Three seats were left for the NCP but it turned it down, after which Lalu gave those three seats and two from its own quota to the Samajwadi Party, which is yet to accept it. But the parties are not revealing the names of their candidates and seats. Nobody knows the dangers of revealing this better than Lalu. His younger son Tejaswi campaigned in Raghopur - from where he is likely to contest - for just two days and sitting JDU MLA Satish Kumar swore to contest from there as an Independent. Earlier, Lalu's eldest son, Tej Pratap, had announced he would contest from Mahua. Soon after, local RJD strongman Gyaneshwar Yadav rebelled against the RJD, swearing to defeat Tej Pratap. There is panic among JDU MLAs as there are indications that at least 22 of them would be dropped. "It's always better to keep the candidates guessing," said a senior RJD leader.
Old-timers point to the advantage of knowing the rivals' candidates first. "In the February 2005 Assembly polls, the LJP fielded Muslim candidates where the RJD fielded Yadav candidates and vice-versa in 50 seats it contested seriously. The result was LJP won just 28 seats but managed to ensure the RJD's defeat in over 60 seats by slicing the party's core votes. Lalu ended up with just 75 seats and never returned to power again," said a politician. Obviously, it pays to wait and watch for now.
State Congress chief Ashok Choudhary, however, said: "There is no deliberate delay on our part. We will sit together to discuss seats. What NDA does is not our concern." His party remains bitter about the "mystery" surrounding seat allotment. "We fear Lalu and Nitish will do what they have done before - allot us seats where the BJP is strong," said a senior Congress leader.
The anxiety is no less in the BJP camp. Party leader Sushil Kumar Modi had to face resistance from party workers over the large influx of "outsiders" in Muzaffarpur. Party sources indicated there are at least 50 aspiring ticket-seekers for just six Assembly seats in Siwan district. "We are bracing ourselves to face black flags from our own party leaders once names of candidates are announced," declared a senior party leader.
State BJP president Mangal Pandey was more candid. "The delay is part of our strategy," he said. Sources said the hitch was about accommodating Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha Secular (HAMS).
NDA leaders meet
State presidents of NDA parties and Manjhi met today at the house of Leader of Opposition in the state Assembly Nand Kishore Yadav but no BJP leader would say what transpired.
RLSP state president and Jehanabad MP Arun Kumar said: "It was a regular meeting and we will meet again."
BJP sources said they plan to contest not less than 160 seats so that it can try and attain the magic figure of 122 on its own. From the remaining 83 seats, it wants to give 40 to the LJP, 23 to the RLSP and 20 to HAMS. Besides, it is applying a formula it followed during the last Lok Sabha elections when it contested 30 seats and left seven and three seats respectively for the LJP and RLSP. By that arithmetic (and considering that a Lok Sabha constituency holds six Assembly seats), the LJP could get to contest 40-45 seats and the RLSP 20 to 25 seats. Considering that Manjhi is a force to reckon with, the BJP is ready to give the HAMS 20 seats.
But sources say the allies - particularly the LJP and RLSP who had asked the BJP to contest 102 seats and leave the rest to them - are unlikely to accept the BJP's formula.
Manjhi defiant
HAMS chief Manjhi declared his unconditional support for the BJP today at Bhagalpur but said his party would not forego the Assembly seats its MLAs held.
Manjhi denied he was in the race for the chief minister's post but said: "We had 18 MLAs of which five joined the BJP with our consent. So, we will claim over 13 sitting seats without any compromise."
He recalled that Prime Minister Modi had offered to send him to the Rajya Sabha from Jharkhand or provide him a cabinet rank at the Centre, but he declined it because he wanted to strengthen his party and NDA and defeat the Nitish-Lalu alliance.
Manjhi said three-member committees of each NDA partner had been constituted and these would individually discuss seat-sharing arrangements with the BJP before final discussions by September 7. He said his party had started preparations for the Assembly polls. "It is not for contesting elections but to mobilise downtrodden communities to dislodge the Nitish-Lalu combination from Bihar," he said.
"There are only two castes here - the poor and the rich. When I revolted, for doing something better for the poor, I had to face opposition from Nitish and others. They removed me but Nitish partially adopted 16 out 34 of my cabinet decisions. Another two-three were included in his vision document," he said.