If the BJP is taunting Lalu Prasad for his 15-year 'jungle raj', Brand Nitish is feeling the pressure of what voters in Chhapra call 'Yadav aatank(Yadav terror)'.

Rajesh Chaurasia, a youth in his twenties at Dighwara village, says in what would sound like music to the NDA's ears that there's only one winner and that's the BJP.

'I can tell you that most Chaurasias and many other castes will vote for the BJP, only because they fear a return of the Yadav terror,' says Rajesh.

The term 'Yadav aatank' crops up repeatedly during interactions with people from the non-Yadav backward classes and the upper castes, who recall how bad law and order was during the Lalu-Rabri regime, before Nitish took charge in the winter of 2005.

'Din mein loot leta tha. Shaadi ke liye meethaiyan bhi chheen leta tha... Nitish ke time sab thik ho gaya, abhi shaanti hai (They (Yadavs) used to engage in loot in broad daylight. Even sweets for weddings were not spared... The ordeal came to an end after Nitish came, there is peace now),' says Pramod Kushwaha of Saidpur village under Parsa Assembly segment.

The Chhapra region across the Ganga and the Gandak rivers from Patna has long been known as 'Lalu land'. Lalu was first elected to the Lok Sabha from Chhapra (now known as Saran constituency) in 1977 during the Janata Party wave. Later, he represented the constituency twice in the 14th and 15th Lok Sabha. As an MP from Saran, he was railway minister in the first UPA government of 2004-09. He won again from Saran in 2009 but with a reduced margin and was disqualified as MP because of his conviction in the fodder scam.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Lalu's wife Rabri Devi contested from Saran but lost to the BJP's Rajiv Pratap Rudy. Rabri had also lost the Sonepur Assembly seat (which falls in Saran) in 2010.

These losses are testimony to the diminishing public support for Lalu and his family members in the region. It also shows that non-Yadav backwards had refrained from voting for Lalu and Rabri and the reason could well be the alleged high-handedness of Yadavs.

'Nitish is chief minister number one for us. He has done a lot of work. But many of our caste members may not vote for the RJD candidate here,' says Mithilesh Kushwaha of Saidpur village, hinting at the 'dadagiri (high-handedness)' of Yadavs.

Saidpur village has a large number of Kushwaha or Koeri residents. After talking to them it was apparent that unlike in Jehanabad, Arwal and certain other pockets in south Bihar, this caste group may not tilt towards the Grand Alliance substantially.

Armed with a Kushwaha as central minister (Upendra, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party chief), the BJP had hoped to get this group to back the NDA in a big way. Reports from the ground,after the first two phases, however, suggest the Kushwahas may not have voted for the NDA as expected. But the tide could change in the BJP's favour in Saran region.

What the Grand Alliance can bank on is Nitish's performance record. 'BJP ko pura Kushwaha vote nahi milega. Kuch lalten me bhi jaayega (The BJP will not get all Kushwaha votes. Some votes will also go to the lantern (RJD's symbol)),' says Jagdish Kushwaha, also of Saidpur village.

In Parsa Assembly segment, there is a keen clash between two Yadavs. RJD's Chandrika Rai, the son of former chief minister Daroga Prasad Rai, is pitted against the LJP's Chottelal Rai, the sitting JDU candidate who switched camps after the seat went to the RJD's quota.

Though Yadavs and Muslims constitute a substantial chunk of voters here, they cannot ensure the RJD's victory if all other castes join hands and oppose the mahagathbandhan. Also, Yadav votes would get divided as the clash is between two strong Yadavs.

In this keen contest, only voters of Nitish's caste could tilt the balance in the RJD's favour. 'Kurmis have a good presence here. They will decide who wins here,' asserts Yogesh Prasad, a teacher. Kurmis have never voted for the RJD here but they could this time as Nitish has joined hands with Lalu.

In adjoining Amnour constituency, however, the Yadavs are in no mood to return the favour to JDU candidate Montoo Singh, a Kurmi. Here, the Grand Alliance candidate does not seem to be the main contender either. The main contest is between the BJP's Satrudhan Tiwary, better known as Chokar Baba, and Independent candidate Sunil Rai. Montoo could at best end up in third place.

'We will not vote for Sunil and Montoo's attitude towards the Yadavs has never been good. He has worked against the Yadavs,' says Sriram Rai (Yadav) of Dadanpur village.

Among the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), if the Nonias appeared to be favouring the Grand Alliance, the Mallahs, who have a substantial presence in this Ghagara-Ganga basin region, seem to be tilting towards the BJP. 'We will vote for the BJP's Chokar Baba,' says Musafir Sahni, indicating that Tiwary, a Bhumihar, was extremely popular.

An equally keen contest looks imminent at Sonepur, between the BJP's sitting member Vinay Kumar Singh (a Rajput) and the RJD's Ramanuj Prasad. The RJD is banking on a division of Rajput votes with three other members of the caste group contesting as Independents here.

In Chhapra town, the BJP is the clear favourite among traders.

The business community indicated they were wary of the return of 'goonda raaj'. Former MP and strongman Prabhunath Singh's son Randhir Singh (RJD) is locked in a contest against the BJP's new face, C.N. Gupta. Prabhunath seems unable to split the upper caste Rajput votes, with most people firm about voting against Lalu.

In the Saran region at least, the BJP appears to be sitting pretty. BJP insiders said they are banking on the third and fourth phases to keep the final outcome on November 8 wide open for pollsters to guess.

• Chhapra region votes on Oct. 28