The Bihar battleground is being keenly observed not only in the country but in the West too as is evident from the rush of European delegates to the state to gauge the ground pulse.
On Friday, a team of delegates from the German and French embassies visited the election war room of chief minister Nitish Kumar. To get a sense of the current political scenario as the all-important election draws near, they followed up the visit with a deliberation with officials of Asian Development Research Institute (Adri). Also present was the India team of International Growth Centre.
"We have come here to assess the ground-level scenario in Bihar ahead of the elections," said Christian Wagner, one of the representatives of the German embassy.
The German and French teams are just a couple in a recent long list of visitors from across the world.
On Wednesday, a delegation of the British High Commission, led by deputy high commissioner Scott Furssedonn-Wood, held meetings with various political parties, including the BJP and JDU, in Patna.
Another delegation of political diplomats from the European Union, including Embassy of Luxembourg, Spain, Finland, Sweden and British High Commission, visited Bihar in September. The delegation interacted with various political parties and other stakeholders to gauge the election scenario.
At Adri on Friday, the German and French teams deliberated on the various aspects of electoral politics in Bihar. Influence of caste dynamics, development agenda and new methods of electioneering among others was on their mind.
Asked about the assessment of the elections, Shaibal Gupta, the Adri member-secretary, said: "The Bihar elections are going to be very close. The political scenario in the state has changed as there are new coalitions this time - the NDA and the Grand Alliance. Besides, there is a Third Front represented by the Samajwadi Party and Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikar Party (Democratic) and four others. Besides, Owaisi (Asaduddin Owaisi, the president of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) also plays a factor in the Seemanchal area. The political dynamics have changed so much that it is very difficult to say anything (about the elections) surely."
On the possibility of anti-incumbency factor against the chief minister, he said: "I don't think there is an anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. Even those who are not keen for voting for the Grand Alliance do not dislike Nitish."
The German representative, Wagner, sharing his experience at the JDU war room, said: "The war room is being handled by Indian People's Action Committee (a professional agency headed by Nitish's political strategist Prashant Kishor). I was quite impressed by the team of young, highly skilled and dedicated experts hailing from premier institutions such as IITs, IIMs and even London School of Economics. They have studied election campaigns in other countries as well and formed their strategies accordingly."
He added: "Though IPAC was behind the well-planned campaign of Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha elections last year, they accept the situation is different this time. They admit that the BJP can put in 10 times more resources into the elections than what is being done by the JDU or the Grand Alliance."
On the significance of caste in the upcoming elections, an Adri official said: "It would be unwise to say that caste never played a significant role in electoral politics in India. It has been a guiding factor right from the time of Jawaharlal Nehru. Caste factor has been adopted by both the NDA and the Grand Alliance in this election."
Shaibal Gupta had the final word: "At present, the BJP has a coalition of extremes as it has leaders representing EBCs as well as forward castes. The same coalition of extremes was enjoyed by Nitish in 2010 elections."
