New Delhi, Dec. 20: A watch has quietly been sounded in a far corner of the country from the giddy celebrations of Gujarat. As he watched Narendra Modi’s triumphal hat-trick in Gujarat unfold, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar pushed the alert button on his alliance with the BJP. It’s quits if this mandate delivers the national centrestage to Modi.
This isn’t quite the brink, though, only a caution that it may not be far away. Nitish has indicated to his close set he does not expect any immediate strain on the JD(U)-BJP alliance. Modi, to his mind, will settle back into his job as chief minister and begin to push the BJP leadership slowly, if also firmly. “This was an expected result,” he remarked to a key aide this afternoon. “There is no alternative to Modi in Gujarat, but we must carefully watch where he goes from here.” The takeaway from Nitish, in the words of the aide, was: no compromise on the Modi issue, and the JD(U) should be keen enough on his movement in order to keep the initiative on pulling out. “The timing (on breaking the alliance) should be ours,” Nitish is believed to have said. It is likely that in the coming weeks, Nitish will push the BJP harder on two conditions he has underlined — that the BJP name its prime ministerial candidate well in advance of the 2014 general elections and that the candidate should be a “secular person who is acceptable” in the broader scheme of the NDA. Though Nitish has never taken names, Narendra Modi fits neither criteria in his book.
Off the public eye, Nitish has made it known to the BJP leadership he will not accept Modi in a leadership role. He was assured a few months back by BJP president, Nitin Gadkari, that the leadership issue will be decided in consultation with allies and that it will have to be an acceptable candidate. But nobody is sure Gadkari will be able to — or even try to — override the press of pro-Modi dynamics within the Sangh Parivar in order to keep his pledge.
The Nitish camp is well aware the BJP may prefer not to name its prime ministerial candidate pre-election and yet project Modi as the face of its campaign. Their speculation is Modi might be brought in as chief of the campaign committee or some such nodal body while he remains chief minister of Gujarat in order to give him the stage to campaign nationwide and emerge as the key BJP leader without being officially labelled the prime ministerial candidate. Nitish is unwilling to work with, much less under, such an arrangement. “We are not fools,” a Nitish aide said. “We will know if and when the BJP decides to project Modi even if it does not spell that out in as many words, we will make our move.”
The Bihar chief minister remains unimpressed by number crunchers who have begun to project data to show a substantial section of Gujarat’s minorities — a little over 20 per cent — may have voted for Modi. He believes Modi is still a red-rag to Muslims and “even the perception” that he has allied with Modi will scare away his minority voters.
Sundering his alliance with the BJP could also hurt Nitish electorally. The BJP brings key upper caste and urban votes to the alliance and that loss will be tough to match. Besides, in a multi-cornered contest with Lalu Prasad on one side and the BJP on another, the JD(U) could well find itself in need of new allies. Bihar elections are three years adrift, but 2014 will be a critical test of strength. There is the risk Nitish could find himself reduced in the Lok Sabha, minus the BJP. But it is a gamble he prefers over supping with his Gujarat counterpart. “Working with or under Modi will compromise his entire politics and worldview, it is not merely about electoral politics,” an aide told The Telegraph. “Nitish is very clear and firm on this; he has said he is willing to lose power but he will not walk hand in hand with Modi.”
He hinted there were “other options” for Nitish to explore to offset the BJP, without spelling out just who. “It’s too early,” he winked conspiratorially. “Wait and watch.”
