Bihar BJP leaders yesterday asking party workers to prepare for a "mid-term" poll in the state has caught political circles both by surprise and amusement. Despite the biggest Grand Alliance constituents - chief minister Nitish Kumar's JDU and Lalu Prasad's RJD - not seeing eye to eye over issues including the stringent prohibition regime and action against gangster-politician Mohammad Shahabuddin, insiders insist chances of a real rift remain very remote.
JDU national general secretary Shyam Rajak declared that the BJP was daydreaming, while finance minister Abdul Bari Siddiqui said the statement was aimed at BJP workers.
"That statement was meant more for the BJP workers than political assessment," Siddiqui, who belongs to the RJD, said. "The BJP has not been in power for more than seven years. Their workers are depressed. The mid-term bogey is to boost their morale. This government is going to last the full term and I do not see the BJP coming to power in Bihar in the next 10 years."
However, Grand Alliance leaders privately agree that if the BJP has been able to spark speculation, the fault lies with the ruling coalition.
"The optimism that the government will last the full term is based on the old saying that power provides a cementing factor - rather than confidence on the partners," conceded an RJD leader, who did not want to be identified for obvious reasons. The leader pointed out that Lalu will not push for a break-up because the political future of his sons are at stake. "Besides, we are in power in the state after a gap of 10 years. Why risk a break-up and lose it again?" he remarked.
The BJP stuck to its guns - publicly.
"The Grand Alliance leaders are always making statements against each other," said senior BJP leader Nand Kishore Yadav. "There are conflicting messages being sent to the bureaucracy - they do not know whom to obey, as a result of which the government's grip over the administration has loosened."
In private, though, BJP leaders are not sure about facing an election in the near future after the humiliating defeat in the Assembly polls last year.
"There are signs of disenchantment against the present regime at the ground level, but they have not reached a point where we can be sure that we can take on the alliance," conceded a BJP leader on condition of anonymity. "We will need a new caste and alliance combination to take on the Grand Alliance and right now that is not happening."
The "mid-term poll" cry is more strategy than political reality, he added.
The fault lines in the ruling coalition are, however, not really hidden.
RJD MP Mohammad Taslimuddin has publicly taunted Nitish for "daydreaming" about becoming the Prime Minister when he is "not fit to be mukhiya of a village". RJD national vice president Raghuvansh Prasad Singh regularly takes pot shots at Nitish. RJD Lok Sabha MP Bullo Mandal has openly spoken about making Tejashwi Yadav the chief minister even before 2019.
But it was Shahabuddin's release on bail that caused the maximum heartburns in the alliance. The JDU held a press meet to publicly criticise Raghuvansh, and Congress president Ashok Choudhary virtually dared the RJD to quit the alliance. There are indications that RJD ministers go to Lalu instead of the chief minister even in connection with official work. The alliance has not been able to finalise the names of chairpersons and members of various government bodies during the last six months.
"The BJP-JDU alliance was much more homogeneous than the present one," admitted a senior JDU leader. "But the alliance will continue despite the rumblings - not because the alliance partners have confidence on each other, but due to political compulsions. Lalu needs the government to survive. Nitish needs Lalu to win elections in Bihar. And the Congress needs both to stay relevant in the state."
