Bongaon, Feb. 12: A vast estate housing two ornate alabaster shrines and visited by hundreds of pilgrims daily is at the centre of much political speculation ahead of the Bongaon bypoll as the majority of the region's electorate usually swing in favour of the person endorsed by a nonagenarian matriarch.

But this time, the mood in and around Thakurnagar, home to the 95-year-old Matua community head Binapani Devi, is different as an air of tense uncertainty hangs heavy on the hamlet, 68km from Calcutta.

Binapani Devi, Boroma to her followers, has blessed both her elder son's wife and her younger son's son.

The problem? While the daughter-in-law, Mamatabala Thakur, is the Trinamul candidate for tomorrow's bypoll, the grandson, Subrata Thakur, is the BJP nominee for the same seat.

A policeman posted outside Thakurbari said Boroma had been visibly tense in recent public appearances.

"She sometimes goes out for a trip of the neighbourhood in the evenings in a wheelchair. We don't see her smiling or talking to people around her anymore. We've overheard conversations of the Thakurbari staff. They say she fears a fragmentation of the Mahasangha in the near future," the policeman said, standing under a massive banner asking people to support Mamatabala. Behind him, a boundary wall of the estate is covered in graffiti seeking popular endorsement for Subrata.

The Matua Mahasangha, which the Thakur family controls, has been influencing electoral results in some seats in Bengal for decades. Matuas form around 40 per cent of the electorate in Bongaon.

All mainstream political parties in the state have been wooing the Matua community, comprising downtrodden Namasudras who crossed over to India as refugees after the partition.

With Boroma's support, Trinamul has reaped dividends in successive elections since 2008 in the two 24-Parganas, Nadia and parts of north Bengal, an advantage enjoyed by the Left earlier.

But things got complicated last month when Baroma's younger son Manjul Krishna Thakur quit as refugee relief and rehabilitation minister and defected to the BJP. Manjul Krishna is one of the leaders of the Matua community.

The equations for the bypolls, necessitated by the death of his elder brother, Trinamul MP Kapil Krishna Thakur, altered drastically with the switch. For the first time in recent memory, Thakurbari is split over elections.

Trinamul tried to control the damage by announcing the candidature of Mamatabala. The BJP replied by nominating Manjul Krishna's son Subrata.

Parimal Saha, a 47-year-old tea stall owner from adjoining Gaighata, voiced the confusion among the Matuas.

"Earlier, we used to back whoever Boroma supported. Now it is confusing, because both Trinamul and the BJP have put up candidates from Thakurbari," he said.

In the May 2014 polls, the BJP's K.D. Biswas had come third, polling 2.44 lakh votes against winner Kapil Krishna's 5.51 lakh votes. The CPM's Debesh Das was the runner-up. The former IT minister bagged 4.04 lakh votes. With 43,866 votes, the Congress had come a distant fourth and is unlikely to make an impact this time as well. Das is the only candidate among the frontrunners who has been fielded again.

While the BJP hopes to make the best of the aunt-versus-nephew contest that is likely to divide the vote-bank, Trinamul is looking to hold on to its support base and ensure a chunk of the Left vote share in its favour.

But there are some other equations at play.

In the 2011 Assembly polls in the semi-urban constituency, comprising the two Nadia Assembly segments of Kalyani and Haringhata and the five Assembly segments of Bagda, Bongaon North, Bongaon South, Gaighata and Swarupnagar, Trinamul had secured all seven, with a vote share ranging from 48 per cent to 55 per cent.

While Trinamul, then in alliance with the Congress, had raked in 6.19 lakh votes, the Left had secured 4.91 lakh votes. The BJP, which gained prominence in Bengal last year, managed 37,078 votes.

The ruling party worries that its hegemony could be eroded on account of the "casual approach" adopted by the Mukul Roy lobby.

The Trinamul all-India general secretary, once the de facto number two in the party, was the organisational backbone in south Bengal. Roy's clout in the two Parganas remains unchallenged. However, this time, he addressed only three rallies. Trinamul sources alleged that Roy had not thrown his entire weight behind the party.

A Trinamul leader handling the campaign in Bongaon said Roy, owing to his alleged distance with the leadership in the aftermath of the CBI probe into the Saradha scam, was a "ghost of his former self".

"If Mukulda's lobby does not back a candidate anywhere in North 24-Paraganas, he or she is bound to be in trouble," he said.

"Nobody thinks that Mukulda would try to ensure the defeat of the party. But he apparently did not work hard enough. He has sent out a strong message that is bound to be heard at 30B Harish Chatterjee Street," the leader added.

But Mamatabala refused to acknowledge the scepticism of a section in her party.

"These are canards being spread by the Opposition and the media. The people are with the party and they know who the deserters are. Besides, we have Boroma's blessings," said the soft-spoken widow of Kapil Krishna.

But will Boroma's backing be enough? The BJP camp, too, seems to have its own problems.

Manjul Krishna claims the support of 2 crore Matuas, though a state government source said there were no more than 70 lakh from the community in the state. According to a district official, around 6.3 lakh Matuas are part of the constituency of 15.5 lakh voters.

The BJP's worry stems from factors such as the discontent in the K.D. Biswas lobby, which had wanted the senior leader to contest this time to build on his 2014 vote share of 19.07 per cent.

Although Subrata rubbished allegations of factionalism, district leaders such as Asok Das have, according to sources, apprised state BJP president Rahul Sinha and the party's Bengal minder, Sidharth Nath Singh, of the problem when they visited the constituency during campaign.

"Factionalism is Trinamul's signature problem, not ours," Subrata said.

In his campaign, Subrata has been raising the issue of citizenship for Hindus who crossed over to India from Bangladesh after 1971, which requires alteration of the 2003 Citizenship Amendment Act. The amendment, initiated by the earlier NDA government, had categorised people crossing over from Bangladesh after 1971 as infiltrators.

"But that's only a part of the problem. I have also promised overall development, more education, training and employment opportunities, which the BJP can bring," Subrata said.

Many in the Trinamul, BJP and CPM camps feel that a large section of Matuas may discard both Subrata and Mamatabala. The Congress candidate, Kuntal Mondal, does not even feature in the discussions on the possible victor.

"There are many here who feel Mamatabala is not a great candidate for the Lok Sabha. On the other hand, they don't trust Subrata and his father, who are believed to have switched to the BJP out of greed," said a middle-aged milk trader from Gobardanga who campaigned for Trinamul.

"That is where the CPM comes in. Debeshbabu is a respectable personality. The Left still has some support here and the CPM might just benefit from the Thakurbari split," he added.

Das, a professor of computer science and engineering at Jadavpur University, said his focus was on retaining the vote share secured by him last year so that a possible split in the Trinamul vote-bank gives his party the upper hand.

"In close fights in Lok Sabha polls, a number of possibilities stay strong. There is no reason, and I say this with utmost earnestness, for the Left not to win here," he said.

The consensus, shared in hushed tones across the constituency, is that the Left will retain a part of its support base while the BJP will make further inroads.

Trinamul's real challenge will be to keep its vote share intact while trying to ensure that its own possible losses and that of the Left's don't translate to the BJP's gains, which was noticed last summer.

One shouldn't, perhaps, look away from the most realistic possibility in Bongaon - Trinamul winning by a slim margin while the BJP and the CPM fighting for the number two spot.