Two weeks after he took office as president of the United States of America, Donald Trump has unleashed a series of tariff wars that threaten to turn the already choppy waters of the global economy into a devastating, unnavigable typhoon. Today, the US will start implementing 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada, and 10% tariffs on Chinese products. The only exemption from Canada is for petroleum products, which will face a 10% tariff. Canada has promised to launch retaliatory 25% tariffs on US goods and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has urged his country to buy Canadian. Mexico has committed to also launching tit-for-tat tariffs on American commodities. These rapidly escalating tensions threaten to fundamentally upend the US’s trade relationships. China, Canada and Mexico are America’s top three trading partners by a distance. They are responsible for over 40% of all US imports. More than a third of all US exports go to just these three countries. Worse, Mr Trump is far from done. He has also threatened tariffs on the European Union — which has also said it will retaliate — and on India. Several currencies around the world, including the rupee, have slid in the past few days amid fears that the global economic turmoil will only intensify.

Amid all of this, policymakers in India and around the world would do well to prepare for the worst — but stay calm. Narendra Modi’s personal rapport with Mr Trump will not shield India from economic setbacks even if the US spares Indian imports from major tariffs. The nature of globalised supply chains means that the ripple effects of manufacturing and trade disruptions in other major economies will also bite India. At the same time, India could look east for lessons. Despite their deep rivalry, China and the US under the presidents, Xi Jinping and Mr Trump, appear to be striving for a deal that helps them manage tensions. If it plays its cards right, India — like China — could be a beneficiary of Mr Trump’s policies as countries that lose trust in US leadership look for other emerging economic and geopolitical pillars to tether their anchors to. Americans might face some of the worst effects of Mr Trump’s tariff wars because of resulting inflation. The world, on its part, has repeatedly suffered from US tariff turmoil since the 1930s. Though bruised, it survived. It will do so, again.