The Narendra Modi government’s decision to include caste enumeration as part of the next census exercise — the latter is running late by years — has been described by the Bharatiya Janata Party as historic. This, though, is a face-saving mechanism on the part of the BJP — historically the BJP and its leaders, including Mr Modi, along with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, have been opposed to such a survey. What has prompted the change, as is often the case in India, are the compulsions of electoral politics. Bihar goes to polls soon. It must be pointed out that Nitish Kumar, as part of the Mahagathbandhan, had conducted and published the findings of a caste survey in that state. A number of states — Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Odisha — have undertaken similar engagements, piling the pressure on Mr Modi’s government. Rahul Gandhi’s sustained campaign in favour of a caste census — the Congress, too, changed its spots on the caste census of late — along with favourable noises by allies like Mr Kumar whose support props up Mr Modi’s government at the Centre did their bit in pushing the prime minister’s hand on the matter. This goes to show that notwithstanding the BJP’s electoral dominance in the last decade, the Opposition can make a difference when it gets its politics and its packaging right. After the hiccup on farm laws, this is yet another instance of Mr Modi’s ‘muscular’ government blinking when brought under pressure.

The political implications of a reliable caste census — a timeline must be fixed — could be interesting. For instance, the BJP’s carefully-crafted mobilisation strategy on the grounds of religion may face pressure from the demands of equality by marginalised groups, leading to a fracture in the Hindutva pyramid. The Opposition would be desperate to make inroads into India’s Dalit and other backward classes constituencies that have been swayed by the saffron wave by riding piggyback on the caste census. The findings of a caste survey could also lead to the rise of an independent political force among the disjointed fraternity of underprivileged groups; a countermobilisation by the upper castes cannot be ruled out either. The future, therefore, is fluid. Can the caste census be a tool for effective social justice though? This is a crucial question. The results of such an intervention are bound to strengthen justified, but competing, demands of reservation in employment and education. Legal ceilings would be brought under pressure. Does the BJP or, for that matter, any party, have the wherewithal to meet this rising demand for justice?