Global adversarial competition on oil and perhaps even on data could well be passé. Critical minerals — they include rare earth elements — may emerge as the new frontier of geostrategic tensions in the days to come. The Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, which was announced at the meeting of the foreign ministers of the United States of America, India, Japan and Australia, the four members that constitute Quad, seeks to diversify and secure supply chains of these resources. The elephant in the room is, obviously, China. Beijing has, thus far, achieved unmatched processing capacities for these critical minerals that play a central role for such segments as semiconductors, fighter jets, electric vehicles, to name a few. In fact, China has been in the eye of the storm ever since it responded to the US president, Donald Trump, unleashing his trade missiles by restricting the export of seven heavy rare earth metals. This step also adversely affected India’s fledgling electric vehicle industry. Members of Quad are thus attempting to create an alternative supply chain that will be immune to Beijing's machinations. That global and strategic interests could pivot around the race for REEs is indicated by the fact that the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative has a predecessor. The Critical Minerals Action Plan was fleshed out at the G7 summit in Canada last month and received India’s nod. Here too, the objective seems to be the same: tap into mineral rich markets to make sure that the world — the West? — can challenge China’s near-monopoly on crucial minerals.

The Quad’s concerns notwithstanding, the grouping needs to address the real elephant in the room. And this proverbial beast may not be China; it could well be Mr Trump. The American president’s mercurial nature and unpredictability could pose significant challenges to aligning the interests of Quad’s members. It then needs to be asked whether the Quad should retain a degree of flexibility to insulate itself from the capricious directives of Mr Trump. For instance, it is undeniable that Beijing’s decision to tighten access to critical minerals — Quad’s search for secure supply chains is a response to this — was a retaliatory gesture against Mr Trump’s tariff war against China. New Delhi needs to ponder this issue as well. Instead of spouting what would essentially be music to Mr Trump’s ears, India needs to choose the battles that serve the interests of the nation.