The prospect of a multi-front war has long worried strategic policymakers in New Delhi amid persistent tensions with two nuclear-armed neighbours, China and Pakistan. In recent years, military escalations with both — China over the Galwan clash that led to four years of an eyeball-to-eyeball standoff in Ladakh, and Pakistan in May this year — have shown the state of India’s preparedness for threats from its north and west. Yet, so far, it has not been tested on both fronts at the same time — a situation that cannot be ruled out in the future given the tight strategic embrace that Islamabad and Beijing boast of. That is just as well, according to senior military analysts, including some who participated in the Combined Commanders’ Conference in Calcutta recently, because India might not be ready for such a conflict. The Indian air force, for instance, faces a shortage of fighter jets: it currently has only 29 squadrons — its lowest since 1960 — even though 42 have been authorised. The three armed forces combined also have a shortage of 1.4 lakh soldiers, out of which the army alone is short of one lakh fighters.

These are shortcomings that cannot be fixed overnight. Indian military planners have been right, in recent years, to demand the speeding up of modernisation. The announcement, earlier this month, of a 15-year modernisation plan is thus welcome. At a time when some key bilateral relations are under rare strain, it is also sensible that India’s modernisation efforts should emphasise indigenous manufacture of weapons systems and platforms. The United States of America, under Donald Trump, does not appear to be a reliable friend, and New Delhi does not want to get back to depending too much on Russia. Reports suggest that India might, for the first time, build its own nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and deploy indigenous aircraft on it. Yet therein also lies a long-time conundrum: India’s home-grown military manufacturing ecosystem lags far behind that of China in particular. While China recently unveiled its sixth-generation fighter jets, India’s fifth-generation jets are still being designed. Like many other countries, India too is looking to ramp up military expenditure to secure itself in a world torn by conflict and tension. But the first step is to identify weaknesses. The last comprehensive review of the armed forces was carried out in 2018. The world has changed since then. India’s military must too.