This incident happened 12 years ago. A small state government plane was taking Laloo Prasad Yadav to address election meetings in Uttar Pradesh. Accompanying him was Ram Vilas Paswan, who had already been in parliament for several terms while Yadav had taken over as chief minister barely three years ago. But as soon as the flight took off, Yadav spread out his legs and placed them on Paswan?s lap on the seat opposite. The other passengers, two newsmen, were embarrassed and Paswan gave a stricken smile before gently lifting the legs and making room for them on the seat by squeezing himself on one side. When the plane took off from Kanpur, Paswan failed to board it.

A few years later, when Paswan was re-contesting the elections from Hajipur, Yadav almost ensured his defeat and Paswan had to plead with him to campaign during the last few days before voting.

The two incidents partly explain the relationship between the two leaders. To Paswan?s credit, he kept quiet for a long time while Yadav and Rabri Devi heaped indignities upon him, and threatened to reveal his misdeeds when he was Union railway minister. Of late, the threats have been renewed and the department of company affairs, under the charge of Yadav?s prot?g? Prem Gupta, has reopened the case of JVG Finance, a chit company which folded up after mobilizing huge amounts from the market and whose promoters allegedly have links with relatives of Paswan.

Nevertheless, something must have snapped to prompt the kind of vitriolic and determined campaign that Paswan conducted against Yadav in the Bihar assembly elections this year. His Lok Janshakti Party may have won just 29 seats against the Rashtriya Janata Dal?s 75, but Paswan was certainly instrumental in turning the tide against Yadav. Remember also that the LJP contested fewer seats, having agreed to give up as many as 80 to the Congress.

Striking back

Paswan and the National Democratic Alliance together have the strength to form a government in the state but for Paswan?s stubborn refusal to have any truck with the Bharatiya Janata Party. The latter will require to ?break? at least 20 of the 29 LJP legislators for a possible ?merger? but even then the alliance will fall short of the half-way mark. Thus, the NDA?s only chance is if it can persuade all of Paswan?s legislators to cross over. For the moment, though, that appears to be a tall order.

In post-election Bihar, Paswan has been pilloried for his failure to prop up a secular government in Bihar. Accept Nitish as chief minister and the ?outside support? of the BJP, everyone is saying, and everybody can live happily ever after. While such an arrangement would suit the NDA, Paswan suspects it would also indirectly help the RJD rally back. In any case, Paswan is eyeing the next election in the state and would like to consolidate his own position rather than prop up others.

The longer president?s rule lasts in the state, he reckons, the more Yadav?s hold on the police and the administration will weaken. A year without Yadav at the helm, he hopes, will reassure minorities that their safety does not depend on a RJD regime. By insisting on a Muslim chief minister, Paswan has already partially usurped Yadav?s support among the Muslims. What?s more, if he is ever pushed to accept support from the BJP, his insistence on a Muslim chief minister could subdue criticism from the secularists. An election under president?s rule a year from now, could well make life difficult for Yadav.

What?s more, such an arrangement would suit the Congress too as the party looks for revival in Bihar. Paswan has already done it a favour by keeping the NDA at bay and the Congress is unlikely to push Paswan to the brink.