Ranchi, March 10: Whichever alliance finally wins the trust vote tomorrow may end up winning the battle but losing the war, if only because there is consensus here that no government can last with a razor-thin majority.

The rider is that the more organised NDA has a better chance of pulling through than the rag-tag army of the UPA.

The state and the people, however, are already seen as losers in the titanic battle. If only one of the groups had the grace to sit in the Opposition, say observers, things might not have looked so bleak. But the desperate scramble to get the majority at any cost has exposed both alliances and indications are that it is going to be a long, bitter and dirty skirmish ahead.

Political uncertainty and adventurism have already cost the state dear and neither alliance has inspired much public confidence by their conduct after the election results came out two weeks ago.

The public mood is partisan and sharply divided. One reason for the revulsion is the acceptance that deals must have been struck and crores of rupees must have changed hands. The frequent use of helicopters, chartered flights and holiday resorts have also contributed to the disillusionment.

There has been some very hard bargaining all around with the UPA winning over Stephen Marandi with the post of the deputy chief minister. But UPA?s problems are far from over with allies merely biding their time. If the majority is proved on the floor of the House, some of them have indicated, they will demand their pound of flesh. The sole minister from NCP is already said to be unhappy over his portfolio and has staked claim to a ?better? department.

Although the Congress is a junior partner in the UPA here, the crisis managers have almost exclusively been Congressmen and former JMM rebel Stephen Marandi. Soren?s younger son Hemant, an engineer who lost the election to Marandi, has been an active player but barring Jamshedpur MP Sunil Mahto, few JMM legislators are seen to have rallied round their beleaguered leader, a sign that Soren will have a tough time managing the aspirations of both his allies and his party.

A defeat tomorrow could put an end to the political career of one of the most colourful leaders of Jharkhand. The relationship between Soren and Congress leaders already appear to be strained and defeat might force the Congress review its links with the JMM. An early indication was when Congress president Sonia Gandhi could not find time to meet Soren during his visit to New Delhi earlier this week.

A win tomorrow, on the other hand, is unlikely to guarantee a smooth tenure for Soren. On the contrary, he may well be faced with an even more bitter and determined NDA onslaught. Besides the criminal cases that the NDA has dug up against him, his links with the ?coal mafia? are being explored.