BJP’s Garhwa candidate SN Tiwari with party supporters at his residence on Sunday. (Prashant Mitra)

Garhwa, Nov. 24: Garhwa Assembly, which goes to polls tomorrow with 20 MLA aspirants, will prove to be out-of-power RJD veteran Girinath Singh’s litmus test.

Controversial Girinath, arguably still the tallest RJD leader in the state at present, knows that winning Garhwa is crucial to his party’s very survival in Jharkhand.

Sitting MLA Satyendra Nath Tiwari, who left the JVM and is now contesting as a BJP candidate is seeking a renewal of his contract from a new address while Mithilesh Thakur of the JMM is requesting people to give a chance to a “clean new face”.

In the hinterlands, paan shop owners, who hear snippets and snatches of talks, gossip, innuendo and strategy all day, become the best poll pundits. Krishna Choubey, one such paan shop owner in Garhwa, spelt out the contest in clear terms. “Yahan ki ladai GSM hai (This is a GSM fight),” he said. “Girinath, Satyendra and Mithilesh,” he explained.

So, who has the best chance? “Trikoni ladai hai, lekin koi bhi apne jeet ka dawa nahi kar sakta hai (It’s a triangular contest but no one can claim victory),” says self-appointed psephologist.

In Garhwa, Muslim and Brahmin votes will play a crucial role. Among Muslims, which way the wind turns is anyone’s guess. They are divided between the RJD and the JMM. Also, BSP’s Rostam Ali Ansari has made some inroads in some Muslim pockets.

Brahmins are tight-lipped as usual.

Girinath Singh’s father Gopinath Singh had represented Garhwa multiple times. Son Girinath ruled the roost till 2009 when voters gave an open call: “Girinath bhagao, Garhwa bachao”. But now, RJD supporters such as Pappu Singh insist the tide has turned. “People are repenting for their mistake. Those who had thrown Girinathji out in 2009 election now want him back. Everyone is with us,” he claimed.

In 2009, Satyendra Nath Tiwari won as JVM candidate. Tiwari then broke ties with the JVM to join the BJP.

But, Tiwari, who may pull in Brahmin and traditional BJP votes, comes with baggage. His name had surfaced in the bitumen scam that is under CBI investigation. Tiwari stayed in judicial custody. As an MLA too, he mostly stayed in Ranchi and did little for his constituency.

More than Tiwari, it is obviously the NaMo factor that the BJP is banking on. A gigantic billboard of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with his fist clenched welcomes people who enter Garhwa town.

JMM’s Mithilesh Thakur has carved an image of a social worker in the constituency. During summer, he invested money in tankers to supply water. He also enjoys the backing of the Edare Shariah, an influential minority organisation.

Both the BJP and RJD however dismiss Thakur’s claims. “This Thakur is flying too much. But Muslim voters know Lalu. The JMM will have to first explain to the minorities that why it hobnobbed with the BJP and is now seeking their votes,” Sanjay Kumar of the RJD said.

A BJP worker dismissed the JMM as having “too little force”. “Thakur will end up getting a few Brahmin, tribal and OBC votes. That’s all.”

“I agree it’s a three-cornered race in Garhwa,” said Manishankar Mani, a jobless postgraduate youth. “But, we can’t dismiss anyone. Girinath and Tiwari have their own followers. There is a NaMo wave here. But, at least Thakur has a better image than Girinath and Tiwari.”