Vijay Mallya, Charles MacLean: In tune

London, May 13: Vijay Mallya was due to fly into London this evening, reviving speculation about the state of play in the negotiations between his UB group and Whyte & Mackay, the Scotch whisky company he is keen to buy.

Although at one stage there was a £100-million gap between the asking price demanded by Vivian Imerman, Whyte & Mackay’s “hard nosed” chief executive, and the offer from the equally canny Mallya, eventually a deal will be done.

This is the prediction from Scotland’s foremost whisky writer, Charles MacLean, who has written eight books, including the standard work on whisky brands, Scotch Whisky, and the leading book on its subject, Malt Whisky.

MacLean, who has won top awards for his books and acted as adviser to whisky companies and trade organisations, explained his reasoning today to The Telegraph.

“UB is short of spirits and Whyte & Mackay is the obvious answer. Mallya has said in the past that he would be prepared to walk away from a deal (if the price was too high) but I do think this will go through,” he said.

In November, UB flew him to India for a hectic tour of Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Goa during when his mission was to speak about Black Dog, a brand first made by Whyte & Mackay in 1879 but now owned and marketed by Mallya.

“When someone as astute and as close to the levers of power as Vijay Mallya starts looking to secure spirit supply by buying Scotch distilleries and brands and promoting his own Scotch, Black Dog, which I helped with last November, then the writing is on the wall,” said MacLean.

It has to be said Mallya, with access to his own private jet, is a frequent visitor to London for social reasons. But there is optimism that sooner rather than later, Mallya and Imerman, “two proud men”, will shake hands.

MacLean also said the “Scottish Whisky Association has been trying to bully the Indian government” into lowering tariffs — and he forecast this, too, would happen since lower taxes would be good both for the Indian government and the Scottish whisky industry.

“There seems to be little doubt that India will be obliged to reduce its tariffs,” said MacLean. “I don’t think lower taxes will harm the Indian industry,” he argued. “Indian whisky drinkers will trade up — those who drink premium Indian whisky will buy Scotch.”

Scotland certainly expected higher trade with India.

“The massive investment in new distilleries in Scotland, not seen since the 1960s, also indicates that the industry is tooling up to meet expected demand from India — and China, of course,” MacLean pointed out. “Bear in mind that India is the largest consumer of whisky in the world by a long chalk — 70 million cases per annum; global sales of Scotch amount to a mere 85.5 million cases. All but less that one per cent of the whisky drunk in India is locally made.”

He also revealed: “The general feeling is that the companies will use big global brands of blended whisky to open up these emergent markets — Johnnie Walker and Chivas Regal will be the major players, also brands that are familiar in India, although less known in other markets, Black & White, Dewars, Haig, Teachers and Ballantines.”

MacLean said: “Glenfiddich, the world’s leading malt, is tooling up. Malt whisky consumption continues to rise in all markets, although it still represents only around 5 per cent of global sales. There is little doubt that more malt whisky will be made available in India.”

He added: “There will also be an opportunity for smaller companies, more agile, to get in with smaller brands — so long as they own their own distilleries. There will be acute pressure on spirit supply (especially mature/aged spirit). I foresee deluxe and super-deluxe brands (JW Black and Blue, Chivas Royal Salute, Ballantines 17-year-old) becoming more expensive, and many people turning to younger blends.”

He went on: “As happened in the 1880s with England/the Empire, and in the 1920s/30s with America, blenders began to create blends designed to appeal to local palates. So, maybe we will see new brands emerging, designed specifically for the Indian palate.”