Manmohan Singh: Hands full

New Delhi, April 29: Many of the Prime Minister’s men are happily planning foreign holidays but the man himself is gearing for a scorcher of a summer at home.

Come mid-May, three events are expected to keep Manmohan Singh neck-deep in work: the presidential election, the Uttar Pradesh verdict and a possible cabinet shuffle.

The Uttar Pradesh results will be out on May 11 and soon after, Singh and Sonia Gandhi are likely to start consultations on who should succeed President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam.

Sources said Singh was keen on a “consensus” candidate because the UPA may not have a majority —- based on the strength of electoral colleges in Parliament and Assemblies — to get its nominee through.

Arithmetically, the minimum value of the votes required to elect a President is 5,49,442. The total value of the votes of 4,210 MLAs is 5,49,474 (the value of each vote varies from state to state) and that of the 776 MPs is 5,49,408, adding up to 10,98,882.

This includes the votes of the outgoing Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The total vote share value of the 403 Uttar Pradesh MLAs is 83,824.

The Congress, UPA allies and the Left are a little short of the required strength. After the Congress defeats in Uttarakhand and Punjab, their vote share is 5,33,326.

This makes the Uttar Pradesh verdict crucial, sources said. If the BSP emerges as the single-largest party with a tally of 150-180, its vote share in the presidential electoral college could go up from 31,108 to 51,000.

Rather than wade into the mess of “driving bargains”, Singh would rather settle for a “neutral” person, the sources said. But they conceded this was “easier said than done”.

“Any nominee suggested by the Congress or the Left would be perceived as partisan and a contest may become inevitable,” a source said.

Although the UPA is keen to stick to the custom of not giving a President a second term — Rajendra Prasad was an exception — a consensus “at least, so far” was emerging only around Kalam, the sources said.

Singh had evolved a “good working relationship” with him, they said, but Sonia’s opinion was not known. The election process will begin in mid-May and end by June 24.

Once the elections were done, Singh would go for a cabinet shuffle “keeping the 2009 elections in mind”.

Cautious Karat

CPM general secretary Prakash Karat would not comment on whether Kalam should get a second term. “Last time the BJP argued that no person should be given a second term. That is why they would not support K.R. Narayanan.”