Mulayam Singh Yadav

Ahmedabad, Sept. 19: The Samajwadi Party is trapped in a heart versus head dilemma over continuing support to the UPA government.

Samajwadi sources admitted their “political instinct” was to wash their hands of a “discredited” UPA and go for polls if the ruling coalition failed the number test, but other “considerations” would weigh in before taking the last step.

Sources said the most important consideration was the impact support withdrawal would have on Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi’s principal political turf.

“We have to factor in certain circumstances, primarily the Gujarat polls (due this November-December). If the government goes, the Congress loses whatever little chance it has of a recovery. If we are seen as the ultimate destabiliser and as the catalyst of a BJP resurgence, Uttar Pradesh’s Muslims will turn their backs on us,” a source said.

Already the state’s minorities are upset with the Akhilesh Yadav government for not containing an outbreak of communal conflicts. The last one near Ghaziabad — provoked by alleged defilement of the Quran — claimed the lives of six Muslims in police firing.

Although the Samajwadi’s official claim is it is “prepared” to face a Lok Sabha election “anytime”, the sources said party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and son Akhilesh felt more time was required for political messages, purportedly emanating from the implementation of some pre-poll promises, to get to the voters.

The sources claimed that Mulayam, who has positioned himself at the helm of a still-to-materialise “third front”, would not want to be part of a political project mentored by Mamata Banerjee and relegate himself to a bit player. The project, in this case, is toppling the UPA.

The sources, however, stressed that their dilemma should not be construed as “weakness”.

“We will oppose the Centre in the strongest manner. Our position is different from Trinamul’s. We are not part of the Union cabinet, we never gave a formal letter of support. Our only aim is to keep the BJP out. That doesn’t mean we will be blind to the coal scam, diesel price hike etc,” a source said.

The sources said status quo ante — or the Samajwadi’s external support to the UPA —would continue and a “major development, if any” could be expected in Parliament’s winter session.

If, by then, the Samajwadi or its Uttar Pradesh rival, the Bahujan Samaj Party, or both withdraw support, the government, faced with a number crunch, would have to go for a floor test.

By the time the session starts, the Gujarat polls would be over.

Tomorrow, Mulayam and his core team will assess the impact of their joint protests with the Left, Telugu Desam Party and others against the Centre.