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2006
Imagine, no paralysis
The sci-fi dream of using brain power to move or speak slid within reach this year. The technology could offer a revolutionary way for people with brain or spinal injuries to move, communicate and manipulate objects, scientists said. In research led by Leigh Hochberg of the Massachusetts General Hospital and John Donoghue of Brown University, a 25-year-old man paralysed after a spinal cord injury three years ago was able to open email, operate a television set and open and close a prosthetic hand — all by imagining movement. In a second study on two monkeys, Krishna Shenoy and Gopal Santhanam of Stanford University found they could speed up data transmission using neuromotor prosthetics so that paralysed people could communicate at a speed of up to 15 words a minute.
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Super soldier
The future Indian soldier was unveiled in October. At the core of the F-INSAS (Future Infantry Soldier as a System) programme are wearable computers embedded into the uniform that increase the soldier’s “situational awareness”. The helmets have radio listening and speaking equipment, and the configurations of weapon systems can be changed on the move (long-range rifle to grenade launcher, for example). Plus, there is night vision. A “smart vest” equipped with sensors monitors a soldier's blood pressure, heart rate and salt balance. The sensors can identify bullet penetration areas and, in case of injury, activate a medication system that clots the blood in the wound. Being implemented in bits and pieces, it may see fruition in 2010. For starters, the army is re-deploying its most technologically equipped arm, the Corps of Signals. In 2007, the sensors will be tried out more extensively on the Siachen Glacier and in extreme areas along the China border.
Speed vs Speed II
A big tech battle was fought in the streets this year. Barely had Volkswagen unveiled the world's fastest car, the $ 1.2 million Bugatti Veyron 16.4 that can reach up to 253 mph, than tiny and obscure British company Bristol Cars went one up. It came out with the 270 mph Fighter T. The two-seater Veyron, with its 8-litre, 16-cylinder power plant that produces 1,001-horsepower, can accelerate from zero to 250 mph in 55.6 seconds. Beneath the Fighter T’s bonnet throbs an eight-litre, 10-cylinder Chrysler engine, which delivers 1,012 brake horse power. It can reach 225 mph in less than 30 seconds.
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Bye-Bye Paper tigers?
The printed page faced its biggest threat this year with the launch of the first electronic book that people can read for hours without straining their eyes. Sony’s Reader, the size of a slim paperback, can store hundreds of books at a time. When the cover is lifted, books are displayed on a sheet of high-resolution electronic “paper” — virtually indistinguishable from the real thing — one page at a time. Sony believes the invention could do for reading what the iPod has done for listening to music. The Da Vinci Code author Dan Brown said, “E-books offer features that traditional books cannot.” For instance, rather than carry several books while travelling, Reader owners take only one on holiday. “If I want a new book, I can download it instantly online even if it is two in the morning,” Brown said. It takes only seconds to download a book.
Future? It’s behind us
Bollywood’s big year after a dismal 2004 and 2005 came on the wings of sequels and remakes. Phir Hera Pheri, Dhoom:2, Lage Raho Munnabhai and Krrish underlined audiences’ love affair with perennial favourites Babu Rao, Circuit and Ali. “The reason sequels did so well is that they were independent films with familiar characters,” says Dhoom:2 director Sanjay Gadhvi. But if the sequels were spot on, it was hit-and-miss for the remakes. Farhan Akhtar’s Don with Shah Rukh Khan in Amitabh Bachchan’s shoes was a smashing success but J.P. Dutta’s Umrao Jaan failed to repeat the Muzaffar Ali magic. But Don’s success means everything from Sholay to Mughal-e-Azam is being redone while the march of sequels continues with Malamaal Weekly 2 and Don 2.
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After such knowledge...
We ended the year wiser with many myths shattered. Gene scientists found no evidence that Indians were descended from Aryans in bulk while another source of chauvinism was dealt a blow with the discovery that men are just as inveterate shopaholics as women. The young can finally tell off the nagging, know-all adults. One research found that the SMS “short hand” actually helps children pick up literary skills by heightening awareness of words in all their possibilities. Another said reclining is the best posture, while sitting upright comes second. And no, cleanliness is not next to godliness. Excessive washing might result from a guilty conscience, scientists said. Writers seem to have divined this long ago, Shakespeare implying as much with Lady Macbeth.
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2007
NET’S NEW AVATAR
• Semantic Web: How we share or search for information on the Web is set for a revolution. Today, people publish documents in standard format and link them together. What you need may be spread across diverse databases and documents, and you may not know how to find it all. The Semantic Web will link data, not documents. The data should be posted using new technology (with names like SPARQL, RDF, OWL) and linked together with definitions of the terms used to express the data. If the publishers indicate the vocabulary used to describe, say, a chemical pathway, others can use the same vocabulary to match article keywords to chemical names. This may sometimes require companies to be flexible about their intellectual property rights.
• Web 2.0: It’s an interactive and highly “participative” system where users do not just search the Web but also contribute content. Some argue it’s already here with blogging, Wikipedia and the India-based sites that allow socialising through the Net. Others say its true potential will be realised in 2007.
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ALL IN ONE
With mobile, Internet and cable TV service providers in competition, they'll look to bundle fixed and mobile telephony, broadband Internet access and multichannel television into a single offer. You might be buying all from one company and receiving a single monthly bill. Some industry observers are waiting for wide-area Wi-Fi coverage, mobile-phone TV and online gaming to also form part of the package. With the mobile’s penetration in India higher than internet’s, on-demand films over mobiles will gain more currency.
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DOSE OF OWN MEDICINE
The race for personalised medicine will hot up with firms vying to offer cheap human genome sequencing. Two firms are expected to breach the $100,000 barrier by early 2007, with one looking to offer the $10,000 genome by the end of the year. The technology will help predict the diseases you might suffer from, track the gene changes that cause cancer, and allow doctors to tailor treatment to suit your genetic make-up.
BOLLYWOOD INC
Bollywood is switching to the Hollywood studio mode and should complete the shift in 2007. Percept Picture Company, UTV Motion Pictures, K Sera Sera, Adlabs Films and their tribe have brought in a corporate culture. Actors such as Hrithik Roshan and Akshay Kumar are already being 'sealed' by production companies for specified periods. Kunal Kohli, Siddharth Anand and Shaad Ali now make movies only for Yash Raj Films, while Rajkumar Hirani, Shantanu Moitra and Swanand Kirkire are tied to Vinod Chopra Films. Ram Gopal Varma works with a fixed set of
actors and technicians.
CARBON TRADING
Several Indian companies have started raking in the moolah over carbon trading rights, and the trend will accentuate in 2007. This involves the trading of permits to emit carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). Under the Kyoto Protocol, a country (or group of countries) caps its carbon emissions at a certain level and then issues permits to firms and industries, granting them the right to emit a stated amount of CO2 over a time period. India is not required to reduce emission of GHGs under the protocol. But it has the right to issue carbon emission reduction credits to projects that reduce GHG emission by installing new machinery and adopting pollution-busting processes.
Firms are free to trade these credits in a free market. Firms whose emissions exceed their credits are heavily punished. The idea is that companies that can cut emissions at a low cost will do so and sell their credits to firms unable to easily reduce emissions. A shortage of credits will drive up their price and make it more profitable for firms to engage in carbon reduction. The World Bank expects India to rake in $100 million annually by trading in carbon credits, and Indian companies are expected to corner at least 10 per cent of the global market.
GOING GLOBAL
India Inc is on a buyout spree abroad. The trend, which started in 2005, will continue in 2007. Indian corporates are more ambitious: deal sizes are no longer in the $100-200 million range. Two deals —the Tata Steel bid for Corus and Reliance Communications attempt to acquire Hutchison Essar — will set the tone for the year. Neither will be easy to accomplish. But for the first time, we have a situation where companies like Tata Steel are prepared to splash out mega bucks to acquire companies four times bigger than themselves. Middle-ranking companies like United Phosphorus and Bharat Forge have also been making fairly large acquisitions and are on the lookout for more. Pharmaceutical players like Dr Reddy’s and Ranbaxy have clearly stated their intention to go in for buyouts abroad. The technology pack is more circumspect — they will be shopping for boutique outfits that fit into their business plans and increase their domain expertise. Surprisingly, money isn’t the biggest worry. Private equity funds in the US — financed by fat-cat pension funds — are scouting for deals in India. Investment bankers are also ready to finance the buyouts through debt, bond financing and leveraged buyouts.
SENSEX, WHERE ARE YOU HEADED?
Optimists are talking about 17000, even 17500, by December 2007. Their opposite numbers — the pessimists — curl up their lips and say 11500; maybe not so bad, 12000. That’s very reassuring, thank you. There’s this third group called realists who see 15000 as reachable, since the sensex is now hovering around 13700. And, if things are really bad (interest rates and oil prices shoot up), 12500. Manish Sonthalia, vice-president (equity strategy), Motilal Oswal Securities, believes: “It will be the fifth year of a bull run but the market is unlikely to scale sharp peaks in such a random manner as we saw this year.”
THE TEN-YEAR ITCH
Bourses will be wary this year, the 10th and 20th anniversaries of two bloodbaths. On October 19, 1987, Wall Street’s Black Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average fell by 508 points — a drop of 22.5 per cent. On October 27, 1997, an economic crisis in Asia caused a global stock market crash
