Uttar Pradesh

POLL DATES: February 11, 15, 19, 23 and 27, and March 4 and 8

Number of seats: 403

Big picture: The elections will largely be fought on religious and caste lines. The Bahujan Samaj Party has been highlighting instances of communal violence during the Samajwadi Party's rule. The SP is in the throes of a family feud but hopes to gain from development projects. The Congress, a fringe player, is banking on Rahul Gandhi's intensive campaign in several pockets and the possibility of a tie-up with the SP. The BJP campaign has revolved around the Ayodhya issue and the fact that Narendra Modi's parliamentary constituency, Varanasi, is in the state.

Phase 1: The BSP seems to be the main force in the 73 seats in western Uttar Pradesh's 15 districts, where the riot-hit Muzaffarnagar is located. Communal violence in this region has claimed over 60 lives and displaced 50,000 people.

Gautam Buddha Nagar, where a mob lynched Mohammad Akhlaque of Dadri on the unsubstantiated allegation of storing beef in 2015, also falls in western Uttar Pradesh, which votes on February 11.

The parties are expecting a polarisation of voters on religious lines.

The BSP's Nasimuddin Siddiqui has arguably been the most active leader in the region in recent months. He has made it a point to tell minority community voters that the Muzaffarnagar and Dadri incidents were "conspiracies hatched jointly by the BJP and the SP to polarise voters".

Momim Jolla, a social worker in Muzaffarnagar, said despite the SP's "insensitivity", the party could hope to get the votes of Muslims, "who don't want the communal BJP to come to power". He, however, added that Muslims were "disillusioned" because of the differences between chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and his father Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The siege on a Mathura park by Ram Briksh Yadav, the leader of a cult, in which 28 people were killed, could also go against the SP.

Agra could offer hope to Akhilesh because of the construction of the Lucknow-Agra Expressway. The SP campaign here has been anchored around this.

Phase 2: Polarisation could be the telling factor in the 67 seats in the 11 districts voting in the second phase on February 15. Around 30 communal riots have taken place in these places during SP rule.

Phase 3: The SP could get some respite in the third phase on February 19, when 69 seats in 12 central districts will vote. This area has Yadav family fiefs such as Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj, Auraiya and Kanpur. Yadav voters will be the deciding factor in 35 constituencies. In Lucknow, the SP could hold the edge because of a Metro project.

Phase 4: The Congress could emerge as a player in the fourth phase, when 53 seats will go to polls on February 23. Rahul has frequently visited Jhansi, Banda, Mahoba, Hamirpur and eight other districts, trying to strike a chord with people through his road shows and personal gestures such as sharing meals with Dalits.

Many believe the SP could face difficulties in the region because of the government's alleged failure to address farmer suicides and migration.

Phase 5: Anil Singh, an assistant professor at Saket Degree College, Ayodhya, believes the Ram temple issue will dominate the fifth phase of elections to 52 seats in 11 districts on February 27.

Union minister Mahesh Sharma said during a visit to Ayodhya in October that the Ram temple issue could not be dropped from the election discourse and announced a Rs 85-crore Ramayan Museum.

The BJP and the Vishva Hindu Parishad have intensified their stone-cutting activities in Karsewakpuram allegedly to mislead the people into believing that they were gearing up to construct a Ram temple.

Phases 6 and 7: The BJP can boast of considerable presence in the 83 constituencies in 14 districts that will vote in the two phases on March 4 and 8.

Deobrat Chaubey, a retired professor of philosophy at Banaras Hindu University, said: "Five-time MP Yogi Adityanath's influence in Gorakhpur and 43 other Assembly seats of east Uttar Pradesh can benefit the BJP."

Chaubey also spoke of the "positive effect" of Modi's parliamentary constituency being Varanasi. The teacher said the BJP could perform well in Varanasi and 40 other surrounding seats in seven districts.