The battle for the Muslim vote is hotting up here. In the 10 constituencies spread across Rohilkhand, bordering west Uttar Pradesh, the 65 per cent Muslim population is crucial to both the Congress and the Samajwadi Party: they will make or break the fortunes of either. The Muslim votes are crucial for the BJP, too. Unlike in any other part of the state, an anti-BJP consolidation and tactical voting in favour of either the Congress or the Samajwadi Party, can cost the BJP as many as four seats here, including Pilibhit and Moradabad. But neither the Congress nor the Samajwadi Party can rest easy as the Muslim consolidation is not spread over the entire region and gains for the two parties will be limited to individual strongholds. So even if the BJP?s loss turns out to be the Congress? and Samajwadi?s gain, the spoils will have to be shared. The Muslims, however, are very confused. Even the Barelvi sect, the largest Muslim sect with its headquarters in Bareilly, has not been able to make up its mind on whom to back. Mannan Raza Khan, head of the Barelvi sect, said: ?I have decided not to issue any appeal because I know the community is in a dilemma. The anger against the Congress has not subsided completely, though it has gone down. ?On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party did not allow a Congress government to be formed after the fall of the BJP government. So a section of the Muslims is against Mulayam Singh Yadav,? Raza Khan explains. Both the Congress and the Samajwadi Party have made informal appeals to Raza Khan. Mulayam Singh Yadav called him last week to ask for his support, with UPCC president Salman Khurshid following suit. But the sect leader feels the Muslims may just play safe, going for the Samajwadi Party or the Congress where each party is strong. Travelling through Rohilkhand, the indeterminate mood is very evident. In Bareilly, the local Congress unit is in a shambles because of intense infighting. Islam Sabir was given a ticket after Pravin Singh Aron?s candidature was rejected. Aron?s supporters withdrew from campaigning, leaving Sabir to fend for himself. But Sabir, who was a Samajwadi Party candidate in 1998, will lose committed Samajwadi Party votes. And Mulayam Singh will reap the benefits. Mukhtar Ahmed, a farmer in Dhanta village, off the main Bareilly-Delhi highway, said: ?Mulayam Singh Yadav has helped the poor. We are still not ready to leave him even if Sabir, the Congress candidate, is Muslim.? Muslim consolidation here towards the Samajwadi Party has also been helped with an indication of the BJP losing a section of its votes to the Samajwadi. In the 15 Lodh-dominated villages in Sali town area of the constituency, there is strong anti-BJP feeling as Lodh leader Sakshi Maharaj, former friend of chief minister Kalyan Singh, was denied a BJP ticket from nearby Farukhabad. The Lodh votes are going to the Samajwadi Party. ?Muslims will vote for a party which has a chance to defeat the BJP,? said Rampal Gangwar of Dhanta village, a BJP supporter. Things also look bright for the Samajwadi in Sambhal, Mulayam Singh?s constituency. The feeling that Muslims are deserting the Samajwadi Party because of non-performance has been ground to dust. Non-performance, like the condition of roads and development, is irrelevant. Sambhal is the perfect example of how not to govern. There are no roads, electricity or water. But Muslims here will still vote for Mulayam Singh because there is no other alternative, the Congress candidate Sripal Yadav being merely a lightweight. In Mavaidal village, close to Sambhal town, Muslims unhappy with Mulayam?s performance had initially told a group of Samajwadi Party workers to ?go back till the promised road in front of their village was built?. Later their demand changed to ?just an assurance? that their road will be built. ?The Muslims are unhappy but do not know where to go. Mulayam might yet survive this election,? says Midda Khan of Mavaidal. In Rampur, however, the Muslim vote looks set to favour Congress candidate Begum Noor Bano, who lost to the BJP by a narrow margin in 1998. Nazim, who runs a tyre shop near Rampur, said: ?I voted for the Samajwadi Party the last time but it will be Noor Bano this time. I made a mistake last time.? This despite Congress inaction. ?The Congress expected the Muslims to come en bloc without too much effort. That has not been the case. Some promises like job reservations and promotion of Urdu needed to be given,? Noor Bano says. The Congress has never tried to woo the Muslims in the run-up to the polls. So it goes on like this, depending on pockets of strengths. If it is Badayun, it must be Saleem Sherwani of the Samajwadi and if it is Aonla, its Kunwar Sarvraj Singh of the same party. In Shajahanpur, former UPCC president Jitendra Prasada stands a good chance of wresting back his seat because of a similar Muslim consolidation. If this tactical Muslim voting continues, there may be no clear winner, but a clear loser, the BJP. The party could well lose the four seats it won from Rohilkhand ? Bareilly, Aonla, Rampur and Sahajahanpur.