future Uncertain?

New Delhi, Sept. 12: The 760 km-long Konkan Railway could become vulnerable to increases in temperature and rainfall and changes in the sea level in 50 years, according to a study conducted by the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad.

“The accident on June 21, 2003, resulting in over 50 deaths was caused by landslide at a deep cutting due to incessant heavy rains presumably higher than the system’s adaptive capacity,” said the study, Climate Change Impacts on Industry, Energy and Transport.

“Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains has been reduced from 120 km/hour to 75 km/hour,” said the study, which looked at the impact on infrastructure taking Konkan Railway as a case study.

The study ? conducted for a joint programme of the Union environment and forests ministry and the UK department for environment, food and rural affairs ? said temperatures are projected to rise by as much as 3 to 4 degrees Celsius, rainfall will increase and there will be more sea surges towards the end of the 21st century.

The report explored critical thresholds to determine when the risk of climate change becomes critical and identified rainfall as the main variable. It observed that the region through which the Konkan Railway passes experiences moderate to heavy rainfall and that marine ecosystems are sensitive to climate changes.

“The future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity,” the report observed.

“Konkan Railway passes through a geologically unstable area. The railway has been made along the coastal regions where there is heavy rainfall along the tracks and possibility of landslides,” said G.B. Pant of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.

“We cannot have a foolproof design based on engineering designs alone. You have to have an idea about how heavy rain patterns will impact it over the years,” he said.

The report said temperature increases over the 21st century can directly affect the stability and strength of the building materials and indirectly increase the need for air-conditioning on trains. So, more repair and maintenance will be required.

The increase in rainfall can cause waterlogging and erosion while sea-level changes can lead to flooding.

“The Konkan region is expected to receive more than 1,000 mm rainfall in a month during the monsoon season. With such a heavy concentration of rainfall, days with more than 200 mm precipitation? will definitely increase. Thus, a system having a rainfall threshold of 200 mm per day would have a high vulnerability in the latter half of the century,” the report said.

Konkan Railway officials said the current design code takes into account the normal climate change variability. But in extreme cases, the threshold level may be crossed.