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Regular-article-logo Friday, 10 May 2024

Weary investors seek solace from results

Analysts expect yet another quarter of robust growth that could provide some comfort to weary stocks

Our Special Correspondent Mumbai Published 07.10.18, 08:33 PM
Reserve Bank of India.

Reserve Bank of India. Picture: Prem Singh

The second quarter results of companies, to start from this week, is expected to bring some good news to the investing community hurt by rising crude oil prices, a weakening rupee and more recently, an inflation-focused Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which refrained from hiking rates to protect the rupee.

Analysts expect yet another quarter of robust growth that could provide some comfort to weary stocks.

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A combination of global and domestic factors has seen the BSE Sensex tanking more than 1800 points during the past week alone. The fall came due to multiple reasons such as rising crude oil prices which breached the $86-per-barrel mark, the rupee continuing its fall against the dollar even as the yields on US bonds rose to fresh seven-year highs.

But there could be some relief in the days ahead as corporate India declares its numbers for the second quarter ended September 30.

Calcutta-based Bandhan Bank will the first off the block on October 10, followed by index heavyweight Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), which will announce its results on October 11. They will be followed by Infosys on October 16.

Experts feel the second quarter is unlikely to be a disappointment with the base effect continuing to play a role like it did during the April-June period.

However, the growth story will be led by a few sectors, with others feeling the pinch of a rise in input costs. Some of the sectors that are expected to shine include IT services, steel, pharmaceuticals, retail and FMCG. On the other hand, industries such as aviation, are expected to bear the impact of rising crude oil prices and a falling rupee.

“Revenues of corporates are expected to log a robust 12.1 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2019, or nearly twice the 6.4 per cent growth in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal, because of a low-base effect and higher realisation for steel makers,” Crisil said in a recent report.

While margins for steel companies are expected to improve due to an uptick in realisation, the fall in the value of the domestic currency is expected to aid export oriented industries such as IT services and pharmaceuticals.

“Cost pressures are clearly rising. Aggregate operating margins would be up 5-10 basis points in the second quarter, but this would be primarily because of the performance of steel makers. Shorn of steel, that number would be plunging around 70 basis points. If cost pressures continue to rise, the gradual ascent in operating margins seen from the fourth quarter of last fiscal could reverse,” the rating agency warned.

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