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regular-article-logo Saturday, 07 December 2024

Monetary policy committee of Reserve Bank of India a divided house on rate cut

Minutes of the MPC’s meeting held from August 6-8 released on Thursday showed RBI governor Shaktikanta Das turning down demands for a pivot due to the high real rate, which is the difference between the repo rate and inflation forecast one year ahead

Our Special Correspondent Mumbai Published 23.08.24, 10:16 AM
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Representational image File image

The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India continued to be divided with two external members flagging growth concerns and others citing the risk of firm food inflation spilling over to other components.

At its last meeting, the MPC had kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent for the ninth time in a row.

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Minutes of the MPC’s meeting held from August 6-8 released on Thursday showed RBI governor Shaktikanta Das turning down demands for a pivot due to the high real rate, which is the difference between the repo rate and inflation forecast one year ahead.

“Policy making in the real world cannot be based on an abstract, theoretical and model specific construct which is unobservable and time varying.

“Hence, any justification for policy easing based on so called high real rates can be misleading,’’ Das said.

Two external members of the panel — Ashima Goyal and Jayanth R. Varma — had voted for a cut in the repo rate by 25 basis points and a change in the monetary policy stance to neutral.

According to Varma, data from various RBI surveys show multiple early warning signals that growth may be already slowing down.

He said a real rate of 2.1 per cent is well above what is needed to drive inflation to the target of 4 per cent.

“It is true that disinflation has been protracted, and, therefore, restrictive monetary policy has to be maintained for a few more quarters. But a real interest rate of 1.5 per cent is sufficiently restrictive in this environment,’’ Varma said while making the case for a cut of over 50 basis points in the repo rate within a short span of time.

Goyal pointed out that there are some negative signals for growth in the Indian economy.

For instance, early results of listed private manufacturing companies show sales and profits softened in the first quarter of this fiscal.

RBI deputy-governor and MPC member Michael D Patra noted that the wedge between headline and food inflation has been widening, stalling the alignment of the former with the target.

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